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Journalism of Courage
Washington8217;s a deadly place 8212; as deadly it appears, as Baghdad. If you can8217;t understand what is happening between Iraq and Washington? Here8217;s a sample of scenarios that are kicking in.
The United States will bomb Iraq because Saddam Hussein is hiding weapons of mass destruction in a special palace. Saddam Hussein does not like Bill Clinton who does not like Saddam Hussein who does not like8230;. Looming behind the massive US preparations for a possible military strike on Iraq is a deep seated human horror at the prospect of germ warfare. Remember Anthrax? Okay, take three 8212; the United States will attack Iraq because President Bill Clinton is under attack at home. A sex scandal in Washington tilts the scale of war and peace in the middle-east. Dizzy headlines matched only by the dizzy preparations for war against Iraq.
As US Secretary of State Madelaine Albright makes her way to Europe this week in a bid to rally support for a possible US attack, United Nations arms inspectors, who earlier reported some progress in efforts to eliminate Baghdad8217;s nuclear and chemical weapons, say Saddam Hussein has lied and obfuscated about a biological weapons programme that has been under way since 1975. Despite their efforts, they say, Baghdad could still produce enough Anthrax to fill two warheads a day. To make matters worse, Richard Butler, the UN weapons inspection team chief said in an interview that Iraq has enoughbiological material to 8220;blow Tel Aviv8221;. He could have said Dahran, he could have said Bahrain.
But he said Tel Aviv, setting in motion a diplomatic waltz that brings Albright to Europe and sends Pentagon into a flurry to find out how it can defend its 24,400 troops in the Persian Gulf region against any chemical and biological attack should this standoff explode. An armada has gathered in the Gulf including the formidable HMS Invincible, the British aircraft carrier and two American carriers with 300 aircraft. Diplomats say it is hard to see what the impending air offensive against Iraq will achieve while some make snide remarks that it will lead to a reproduction of formidable war machines in toy shops for the next season. While no one defends Baghdad, the build-up to the attack they say, is painfully predictable. Television screens across the world are showing Iraq8217;s preparations which include gun-toting chador clad women parading down the streets of Baghdad. The scene is almost macabre. Thepropaganda on both sides is working.
Before tomorrow is out, Albright will meet Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeni Primakov in Madrid, French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine in Paris and British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook in London. Clinton and Tony Blair have already agreed in a telephone conversation that the situation in Iraq is 8220;serious8221; and Albright will try and convince a reticent France and openly opposed Russia that hitting Saddam Hussein is the only available option.
France appears to be backing listening. French President Jacques Chirac said in New Delhi that Iraq must conform with UN resolutions and allow the team to look into the Iraqi leader8217;s palaces. The Security Council is to decide this week what comes next. Russia has declared that it will veto any UN-backed attack on Iraq. Before leaving for Europe, Albright said she was prepared to unleash the formidable US naval and air force assembled in the Gulf without international backing if necessary to ensure an end to Iraq8217;s biological,chemical and nuclear weapons programmes. Saddam Hussein should know, she said, 8220;that there are no excuses left here8221;.
It seems unclear though as to what has brought matters to the precipice once again. Last time the major powers visited this place was when Saddam Hussein threw out the Americans in the UN team of weapons inspectors calling them spy. That was in November and the bid to bring that crisis back from the brink passed through a midnight rendezvous in Geneva. Then the US had no support from the Gulf states to slam Saddam Hussein and Russia and France went in to bat for Baghdad. It was known even then that Iraq was hiding weapons, including biological weapons. Arab diplomats say Iraq is not the only country in the world with weapons of mass destruction. They say nobody moved when Saddam Hussein gassed the Kurds some years ago.
According to Washington, some 10 countries mostly in northeast Asia or the Middle East have the stuff. The West calls it the 8220;poor man8217;s atom bomb8221; there is evidencethat some scientists are still pushing the frontiers of biotechnology to find more efficient germs. Since last November Baghdad has kept the tension alive and even managed to slowly escalate it without really seeking to provoke a war. Diplomats say Saddam Hussein8217;s strategy is probably to wear his opponents down by taking them from crisis to crisis.
Russia has announced that it wants to exhaust political options rather than resort to military force. 8220;This is the most dangerous issue on the planet at the moment. The danger of an armed conflict here is very high,8221; Russian Defence Minister Igor Sergeyev has said. As the US turns on Saddam Hussein, the American press on Thursday claimed new revelations in l8217;affaire Lewinsky. Washington it would appear, is a pretty dangerous place too.
Children of a no-man8217;s land
As the world waits with bated breath wondering how the latest version of the US-Iraq standoff plays out, Iraqi children are facing the sting of an international trade embargo againstBaghdad. Malnutrition is a 8220;hidden emergency8221; that has at last been exposed as affecting almost 8220;30 per cent of children under five8221;, a UNICEF report says.
The study compares the children8217;s chances of surviving two common diseases, diarrhoea and pneumonia, in 1996 with those in 1990, before the UN imposed economic sanctions to punish Iraq for its invasions of Kuwait.
An Iraqi child with diarrhoea had a one in 600 chance of dying in 1990, rising to one in 50 in 1996. For pneumonia, the odds have grown from one in 60 to one in eight in 1996, the report says, coming just days before UN Secretary General Kofi Annan is slated to present the Security Council with sweeping recommendations for improving a programme 8212; the oil-for food swap 8212; that was to be the country8217;s lifeline.
The swap is part of an international deal concluded in 1996 allowing Iraq to sell 2 billion in oil every six months to buy food, medicines and humanitarian goods for its 20 million people suffering under sanctions which include aban on oil exports from Iraq.
UN officials have been saying that the money is inadequate to meet the country8217;s needs and Annan is expected to outline ways to increase the aid. There has also been widespread criticism of the delays in the programme, in which the average time lapse between the sale of oil and the arrival of goods in Iraq is anything between four to six months. The process includes lengthy investigation by the United States of Iraqi purchase contracts and the endless consultations with several UN agencies that precede any assistance reaching Iraq.
UNICEF officials insist that the oil-for-food programme is separate from Iraq8217;s dispute with the UN over arms inspections, a dispute that for all practical purposes is managed by the United States. UN officials say privately that the tensions between Baghdad and Washington cast a long shadow over the question of delivering humanitarian assistance and add it is unlikely that the ground situation in Iraq will change in the near future.
The UN armsinspectors must certify that Iraq has eliminated its weapons of mass destruction before the sanctions can be lifted. Some diplomats say the sanctions may never be lifted 8212; it has become a handy tool with which to keep a grip over oil flows from Iraq. Caught between Saddam Hussein8217;s arsenal and Washington8217;s views on them are Iraqi children. According to some estimates, over half a million of them have perished over the past seven years, deaths that could have been avoided if medicines and food had arrived on time.
