The Zuma-n condition

The ANC hasn8217;t really got over being a party of struggling exiles. In those years in the wilderness, as the leaders of...

The ANC hasn8217;t really got over being a party of struggling exiles. In those years in the wilderness, as the leaders of apartheid South Africa faced brutality at home and apathy abroad, observers were struck by how unified the organisation was, how much it stayed on message. That wasn8217;t a coincidence: the ANC took internal discipline very seriously. Without that, many of its members feel, they would have been riven by ideological divisions, and would not have survived to provide a new South Africa with the unity and direction it needed in the 1990s.

Here, though is the negative: it drives dissension underground. And when dissension and disagreement is only hinted at in public, rumours thrive. Everyone 8220;knew8221; that President Thabo Mbeki and his rival Jacob Zuma were determined to end each others8217; political careers, by any means necessary; last week we saw years of rumours bear fruit when a judge threw out corruption charges against Zuma, while mindlessly repeating the claim that they8217;d been dreamed up by Mbeki. Of course, just by putting it in his judgment, he gave the rumours credence; and, automatically responding to party discipline, Mbeki resigned. He is now contesting the judgment.

This is a real danger on several levels. The first is straightforward 8212; Mbeki, AIDS denialism aside, was a pretty good president. He wasn8217;t really a visionary, and in any case we wouldn8217;t have noticed if he was, given the man he succeeded. He kept up the pace and quality of reform, he ensured South Africa globalised as far as possible, and he was careful to set up processes that gave those excluded under the previous system stakes in the economy8217;s success. His successor may be less able 8212; or less willing 8212; to carry on this delicate balancing act.

General elections in South Africa are a few months away, after which there is little or no doubt that, unless the ANC splits, Jacob Zuma becomes president. Of course, India8217;s two steps ahead of everyone else: deputy foreign minister, Anand Sharma, created waves when he called Zuma 8220;South Africa8217;s leader8221; at a recent lecture in a Durban university. Zuma8217;s instincts are towards full-throated populism, and his constituency consists of trade unionists, disaffected younger people and the ANC8217;s traditional allies in the South African Communist Party. There might not be any ethnic tension, although Zuma is a proud Zulu and Mbeki from the Xhosa majority, but the investment climate will certainly change. South Africa8217;s never had the problems that some other African states have had with leaders that are not really viewed as 8220;our sort of people8221; by the international community; Mandela was a legend and Mbeki, at heart, a slightly fussy diplomat. It isn8217;t surprising that urban South Africans of all races are a little concerned that the two of them will be followed by a populist former guerrilla who8217;s survived rape and corruption charges and is associated with a love song to his Kalashnikov.

And, of course, there8217;s the problem of Zimbabwe. After long and careful negotiations, Mbeki persuaded Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe into a power-sharing arrangement with the democratic opposition; the parameters of that arrangement have not yet been worked through, however, nor has it been put under any form of strain. The moment it does, the absence of Mbeki, one of the few people Mugabe trusts, might make a big difference to its workability.

Still, it is fitting that Mbeki should be brought low by a rumour. Nobody played the game of rumour and concealed charges quite as well or as often as Mbeki, who wielded secrets like stilettos. In 2001, he sidelined three of the ANC8217;s best and brightest 8212; the human rights lawyer, Matthews Phosa; the trade union activist-cum-billionaire, Cyril Ramaphosa; and the current holder of the Most-Unbelievable-Name-in-Politics title, Tokyo Sexwale, when he accused them of plotting against him; in a twist of the stiletto, he even implied that they were accusing him of organising the murder of the dangerously popular communist Chris Hani. The worm turned: Ramaphosa and Sexwale led the ANC movement to force Mbeki out last weekend.

The ANC needed Mbeki, or someone like him, for the party to remain the fulcrum of South African politics. Zuma perhaps knows as much; he8217;s persuaded the finance minister, the widely-respected centrist Trevor Manuel, to stay on. Others associated with Mbeki are not likely to, however: the deputy president, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, has already resigned and there are fears that others will follow her soon. In the worst-case scenario, many centrists in government will abandon the ANC, causing the party to split; but not enough, because of Mbeki8217;s unpopularity, to make enough of a difference at election time. If that happens, South Africa might be in for a period of instability and populism 8212; something its still-fragile politics can ill afford.

mihir.sharmaexpressindia.com