The roads to Kathmandu

Two factors are breeding a sense of stalemate and uncertainty in Nepal. The ruling coalition led by G.P. Koirala has failed to hold elections to the Constituent Assembly

Two factors are breeding a sense of stalemate and uncertainty in Nepal. The ruling coalition led by G.P. Koirala has failed to hold elections to the Constituent Assembly CA on schedule. And the Maoists are taking actions that militate against the spirit of the peace process. The absence of clarity about the immediate future has led to some rather extreme speculation. Senior Maoist leaders even claim that by not accepting their demands for declaring Nepal a republican state and agreeing to election by proportional representation for the CA, Prime Minister Koirala is creating a situation where army might stage a coup.

Prachanda, who leads the Maoists, proposed last week that the Maoists and the 8216;nationalists8217; 8212; implying those close to the king 8212; work together for the larger national interest and durable peace. He has predictably come in for sharp criticism from his colleagues, mainly belonging to the ruling coalition, but the proposal has injected fresh uncertainty into Nepal8217;s politics. He later tried to explain that his statement was not aimed at protecting the king, but argued that they should not leave the monarchists without a space in the country8217;s politics.

Prachanda8217;s latest interventions have sowed the seeds of distrust among Nepal8217;s key political players 8212; the Nepali Congress, which leads the ruling coalition, saw a fresh bout of revolt with more than 70 parliamentarians and central committee leaders threatening to revolt against Koirala if he succumbed to the Maoist demand. The move is seen to be aimed at preserving the monarchy in a ceremonial status. It has the backing of stalwarts like party8217;s working president, Sushil Koirala, and its general secretary, K.B. Gurung.

The prevailing uncertainty has also confused the international community which, during the past two years, has been patiently supporting the peace process and elections. They had also accepted India8217;s lead role in the whole exercise after India brought the Maoists and the major pro-democracy parties together under with 12-point agreement that secured the Maoists8217; commitment to end the decade-long insurgency, renounce the politics of violence and accept a democratic order. Election to the CA was accepted as the best way to ensure durability of Nepal8217;s political system.

But with elections postponed twice, the Koirala government8217;s legitimacy at home, as well as India8217;s status as a peacemaker, are being questioned. There are clear signs of the international community making their individual assessments of the situation. The European Union recently sent a high-level delegation 8212; the fourth in a year8217;s time 8212; to assess the situation. While it concurs with India that elections should take place at the earliest, a conducive security atmosphere is seen to be a pre-condition.

8220;Lawlessness, notably in the Terai, is increasing,8221; the EU8217;s team said at the end of the visit. 8220;There has been severe violence between communities; many people live in fear and are prevented from going about their daily lives. There is a need to rebuild public confidence in the police and to give the police the support to tackle these problems.8221;

As the Terai becomes an issue of major concern, both for the Nepali authorities as well as India which says the aspirations of the people there should be addressed, China, Nepal8217;s northern neighbour, has somehow come to believe that what has been happening in Terai is not 8216;usual8217;. There are increasingly visible signs that China now fears that instability in Nepal will have its impact in the north as well, and it will want to have its presence felt in Nepal more. Although China was part of the combined international initiative, a high-level Chinese delegation led by Wang Ziarui, minister for international development of the Communist Party of China, which visited Nepal recently, advised leaders from all sides including the Maoists that Nepal must find solution to its problem by itself. The loaded statement is being interpreted here as China wanting to play its role independently taking into account all the factors, internal and external.

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