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April 19: Twenty-one persons are shot by foreign mercenaries reportedly belonging to the Harkat-ul-Ansar at Prankote in Udhampur district...

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April 19: Twenty-one persons are shot by foreign mercenaries reportedly belonging to the Harkat-ul-Ansar at Prankote in Udhampur district.

May 25: Four persons are killed and four injured when foreign mercenaries attack the house of a retired forest official at Surankote in Poonch.

June 11: Five persons are killed when they are caught in a crossfire between foreign mercenaries and security forces at Phagla-B in Poonch.

June 19: Twenty-six people of a wedding procession shot by militants at Chapnari in Doda district. Mass migration follows.

At a time when there are signs of decline in the militant activity in the Kashmir Valley, an increasing number of such incidents are being reported from the Jammu region. The security agencies are worried as not long ago militancy was confined to the hilly Doda district in the region.

Now the gamut of militancy has extended to other districts Poonch, Rajouri and Udhampur as well. The worst-affected have been the twin borderdistricts of Poonch-Rajouri and Udhampur which has come on the militancy map at the end of last year.

Officials say that what makes the militant attacks in the region from that in the Valley is the involvement of foreign mercenaries here. 8220;Here the attacks are being carried out mainly by mercenaries and the local cadre has been virtually out of picture,8221; says the Inspector General of Police, Jammu province, Kuldeep Khoda.

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With foreign mercenaries moving centrestage, the war between the security forces and the militants are getting increasingly intense. Intelligence sources say that Pakistan8217;s ISI has floated a new outfit, Harkat-ul-Jehad-Islamee Tanzeem to give fillip to militancy in the Poonch-Rajouri range and the counter-insurgency agencies are reworking their strategy.

The shift in targets and the consequent spurt in militancy in the province is being attributed to various factors ranging from attempt to widen the militant bases to altering of the demography in this region. Explains Khoda: 8220;Thereis a growing realisation in the ISI think-tank that globally the problem should not be perceived as a Kashmir-specific trouble but it should look more like a problem in Jammu and Kashmir and hence new areas in the Jammu province are being targeted.8221;

Officials point out that till 1996 end, Poonch-Rajouri range was merely used as transit route for militants destined for Kashmir Valley or Doda, but since last year end they have gradually built up bases in these areas and started carrying out attacks on security forces. This move gives the militants a strategic advantage. 8220;Once they established their bases they started carrying out attacks on security forces which resulted in diversion of security forces to these regions. The pressure eases a little bit on the militants in the Kashmir Valley,8221; says a senior Intelligence officer.

Besides, he adds, the militants are able to explore more transit routes and new destination other than the Kashmir Valley for strikes. For instance, Udhampur rarely witnessedmilitant activities last year but in the first half of this year, major strikes, including the one at Prankote, have taken place. 8220;Once they manage to cross over from the Rajouri-Poonch border, they can move towards Udhampur and Doda via Budhal using the difficult passes of the border district,8221; says an Army officer.

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Khoda says that the foreign mercenaries are a committed lot and 8220;would rather get killed than give up8221;.

Statistics reveal that. In Rajouri, as against 35 killed in the first six months this year, only nine were apprehended. In Udhampur, as against 10 killed, only two were arrested, Doda 32 killed and six arrested and in Poonch three killed and two arrested.

Officials point out that the induction of the foreign component was also triggered by an apparent indifference by the local militants towards the mercenaries. 8220;They local militants have in fact started helping the security forces as the mercenaries no longer trust them. The mercenaries feel that the locals are vulnerable to localcompulsions,8221; claims Khoda.According to official estimates, out of the 600-odd militants active in the Doda province, more than 250 are foreign mercenaries. In Poonch-Rajouri, out of the 400 active militants, 90 per cent are believed to be foreigners. And 150-odd militants, including foreign mercenaries, are believed to be operating in Udhampur.

What has alarmed the security agencies is the killings aimed at forcing large-scale migration. Counter-insurgency analysts point out that selective killings have taken place in areas which fall in the routes of the militants.

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8220;They want there areas to be clear of any civilian population particularly of the community which they don8217;t perceive to be helping the forces. That is why the selective killings are taking place,8221; says an officer with a central Intelligence agency.

The security forces are re-working their strategy to counter the spurt in militant activities. Joint operations by the Army and the STF have been intensified in forest areas and villagedefence committees set up in Rajouri, Poonch, Doda and Udhampur.

8220;It is a battle now. We have to take the fight to the mercenary camp and prevent their free movement in these areas,8221; says an Army officer.

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