The Baloch blunder

The missile attack launched by the Pakistan army on Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Bugti has given a fresh lease of life to Balochistan8217;s long simmering insurgency and put further strain on Pakistan8217;s fragile nation state. The saner voices within Pakistan have already expressed the fear that it could bring about what one national newspaper termed a 8220;recrudescence of nationalist sentiment8221; within Pakistan.

The consequences of the killing may take a while to play out, but already rumblings of political discontent within Pakistan8217;s political mainstream have merged with the full-throated anger of the Baloch insurgents. Not only are Pakistan8217;s famous political exilees in a state of high exultation, even Musharraf8217;s close political associate, Shujjat Hussain, appears to have distanced himself from the attack. The Pakistan army may be very gung-ho over the assassination, but the Musharraf government has had to tone down its rhetoric on the issue. It could be a moment that furthers the realisation within Pakistan that stirring the ethnic pot is a strategy that is both dangerous and unwise.

For India it is important to read the moment right. It has to find the balance between responding to a development that has serious consequences for the stability of the entire region and keeping the rather etiolated Indo-Pak peace process going, with Pervez Musharraf and Manmohan Singh slated to meet in Havana two weeks down the line. India has officially kept its nose out of the Balochistan insurgency and it is clearly not in this country8217;s interest to get involved. At the same time it cannot but be interested in the project of a democratic Pakistan. The observation in the official Indian statement that 8220;military force can never solve political problems8221; would be read very differently across the border, but it is nevertheless a useful principle for both countries to iterate. India should also take enough care to ensure that its empathy for the Baloch cause does not give an opportunity to Islamabad to either discredit the movement or divide opposition leaders by laying them open to the charge that they are toeing the Indian line.