Tactical gain, strategic blunder

General Musharraf himself would have seen the logic in the proposition that in the run-up to elections in 2007 and given his own image as an enlightened military leader who is keen to make the transition to democracy, a martyred Bugti would be counter-productive to his larger objectives. Yet Bugti was killed in a swift and covert military operation. It could be inferred from this that elements within the Pakistan military are bucking the general.

Compounding this internal military challenge is the possibility that renewed armed resistance by the Baloch National Army — whose leadership, incidentally, is with the other tribal leaders — will drain the Pakistan military’s already stretched resources. In the course of one of his interviews, Nawab Bugti used to assert that a few hundred Baloch guerillas could tie down five divisions of the Pakistan Army. The military is already engaged in battling the Al-Qaida and Taliban elements along the Pak-Afghan border and some reports indicate that Washington is unhappy with the current spate of violence and the lukewarm efforts of the military.

What the Bugti killing demonstrates unequivocally is that Pakistan’s military now has the technological capability to prosecute the war against insurgency and terrorism with great lethality. Whether through satellite phone intercepts or the use of helicopter gunships, it has established a certain operational credibility despite the harsh and sparsely inhabited terrain of the Baloch region. Nawab Bugti assumed — wrongly — that his craggy hiding places were impregnable. If this be the case, it would be fair to assume that a military that can take out Bugti can do the same with bin Laden.

US pressure in this direction is probable. However, this exigency will add to General Musharraf’s domestic problems. The religious right is already accusing him of succumbing to Uncle Sam — the proposed amendment to the Hudood law is a case in point.

Conservative forces are deliberately stoking religious sentiment to derail what is otherwise a commendable initiative which will restore some semblance of equity to the women of Pakistan. Consequently, Musharraf’s image on the Pakistan street is that of a puppet of the US — anti-democratic and someone who is tampering with the shariat.

With Bugti’s death, Musharraf is already being compared to his military predecessors who contributed to the break-up of Pakistan and the run-up to 2007 is clearly not going as per the script. Before his violent death Nawab Bugti had demanded that General Musharraf and the Pakistan military go back to the barracks where they belong. This is the spectre that is going to haunt the ruling establishment in Rawalpindi.

The writer is a defence analyst