Swinging Fortunes

The Saurashtra-Kutch region is set for another cliffhanger. With 58 seats at stake in the region, neither the BJP nor the Congress can afford to take it easy.

The Saurashtra-Kutch region is set for another cliffhanger. With 58 seats at stake in the region, neither the BJP nor the Congress can afford to take it easy. Given the fact that in the 2002 elections the victory margin in 21 seats was less than 5,000 votes, even a minor vote swing can upset calculations.

At the moment, both the BJP and the Congress have reasons to worry8212;the BJP is grappling with dissidence and the Congress faces a leadership vacuum. After the 2002 elections, the BJP tally stood at 39, down from 52 seats in the 1998 assembly elections. Of the 39 seats, the BJP won with a margin of less than 2,000 votes in 12 seats. The Congress made inroads by increasing its tally from six to 19, but it won 11 of the seats by a narrow margin of 5,000 votes.

If the last election result is any indication, the presence or absence of prevailing factors like dissidence, anti-incumbency, infighting, role of the VHP, RSS and Bajrang Dal, and the support of dominating communities like the Patels and the Kolis can change the fortunes of both the Congress and the BJP.

Amreli, which has now become the bastion of BJP rebels, and Jamnagar are two constituencies where voters made sure no candidate went home with a comfortable win.

Though the BJP won five of the eight seats in Jamnagar district in 2002, the victory margin in every seat, including Jodiya, Jamnagar, Kalawad, Jamjodhpur and Khambhaliya, was between 5,000 and 2,000 votes. The Congress, which won three seats in Jamnagar, has reasons to worry as the difference in votes in Jamnagar rural, Bhanvad and Dwarka was between 2,000 and 5,000 votes.

Amreli can spell trouble for both the BJP and the Congress. Of the six seats here, the BJP won five in 2002, of which the sitting MLAs in three8212;Bavku Ughad, Balu Tanti and Bechar Bhadani8212;have been suspended for anti-party activities. In 2002, BJP state president Purshottam Rupala lost the Amreli seat to Congress8217;s Paresh Dhanani by a huge margin of 17,000 votes.Urban Development Minister I.K. Jadeja will have a tough run in Dhangadhra seat in Surendranagar district, which he won by a margin of less than 2,000 votes.

In Kutch, the Congress wrested three seats from the BJP in 2002 and increased its tally from one to four, but the narrow victory margin will make the party work harder.