Premium
This is an archive article published on October 7, 2006

Sums and guns: getting it right

The question is more of obtaining optimal capabilities from defence outlays and less of their affordability

.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has stated that war is not an option in dealing with Pakistan-supported terrorism. That considered opinion from an economist prime minister reflects a great deal more than his words convey. It is not as if India will pursue a pacifist policy. It is also not an issue of whether India can afford to fight a war. A war will need to be fought and won, if it is forced upon India. What Dr Singh8217;s statement reflects is a deeper understanding of the evolving nature of conflict. India will need to consider a range of options in dealing with terrorism. All options for ensuring India8217;s security will, however, have to be backed by the ultimate capacity to wage and win a war.

Demands from the social, technological, infrastructure sectors on national wealth will continue to grow. The pressure to maintain defence expenditure at current levels will not diminish. India can afford its present financial outlays for defence indefinitely, and even improve upon it. The important question before India8217;s strategic planners today is more of obtaining optimal capabilities from defence outlays and less of their affordability. India has moved beyond the traditional debates of 8216;bread versus guns8217;, or 8216;development versus defence8217; which dominated economic thinking in the early decades after Independence. Its military capabilities have made India secure from a military threat to its territorial security. Public opinion has supported such efforts. What Indians will not support is diminishing military capability at rising costs.

A better understanding and management of the economics of defence is, therefore, more important than before. Defence economics permits a better approach of dealing with military needs as economic problems. This approach facilitates cost-benefit driven fund allocation and the efficient use of resources. When military needs are viewed on the basis of economic choices rather than as inflexible military demands, multiple options open up to better utilise financial outlays.

The decision to build military equipment or to buy it abroad is a major dimension in the economics of defence. India is still at a stage where the bulk of its major armament needs are bought from developed countries. That state of military dependence is not going to change soon. All the more reason that choices are made with economic rationale. The fixation on self-reliance had led to decades of wasted effort in building capacities that were economically unjustifiable. Indian military exports bear no relationship to the effort which has gone into building the capacity. Every major military power has based its military capabilities on the foundations of competing in the global arms market. Should India base itself on the producer-exporter model or the buyer-user model? The Indian choice has been to combine both by licenced production in India. That has neither kept the costs down nor built an indigenous military technology base. The relationship between indigenous defence R038;D at lower levels of technology and India8217;s rapidly growing technological capacity is yet to be harmonised. The new concept of military offsets that ensure that international military technology can be used to empower civilian capacity is only beginning to be considered in India.

In logistics and manpower issues, there are large areas for economy in expenditure and savings. Our policy of duplicating capacity in the armed forces, even as the civilian labour and services sectors are clearly ahead in skills and dependability, is an economic anachronism. Much of the captive logistic chain of the armed forces fails to utilise the available capacity in the civilian sector. As the Indian economy gains in size, its capacity to provide gainful employment to its youth will have a direct impact on the availability of human resources for the manpower intensive organisations that form the basis of the Indian military. The economic link between risks of military service and manpower costs is in need of analysis. The discipline of output budgeting by which each segment of the three defence services can be assessed for their contribution to the total defence effort has not even begun in the ministry of defence MoD.

The MoD has a finance division of long standing. Its role in the colonial period was limited to bookkeeping. It is now graduating from this to working the principles of the economics of defence. It is beginning to look at international experts in defence finance and economics to obtain insights into best practices abroad. This is an encouraging development. It is to be hoped that the transition from being defence accountants to managers in the economics of defence comes about at the earliest.

The writer, a retired lieutenant general, is director, Delhi Policy Group

 

Latest Comment
Post Comment
Read Comments
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement