Suharto8217;s last sigh

The old order ends in Indonesia with President Suharto stepping down after 32 years in power in the wake of economic crisis and political chaos. A new order is still to be born. Suharto8217;s nominated successor, the widely disliked vice president, Jusuf Habibie, does not look like being the midwife at its birth even though his appointment runs to the year 2003. People8217;s power expressed in protests and riots culminating in Jakarta forced the longest serving dictator in Asia out of office but a poorly led, disorganised student movement is no guarantee of a democratic transition. Suharto rose to power by suppressing a left-wing revolt which left half a million dead. Over the next three decades, under his authoritarian regime Indonesia grew out of economic backwardness and emerged as a major Asian powerhouse. At his exit, Indonesia is crippled economically and politically. It took the Asian financial crises of 1997, consequent economic hardships and popular protests to expose the critical weakness at the heart ofthe country8217;s economy and political system.

Indonesia is left to evolve a workable political arrangement out of the unpopular remnants of the old regime including the new president and the dominant Golkar party, a rubber stamp People8217;s Consultative Assembly, and opposition formations which have not been able to develop as credible alternatives because of the repressive practices of the Suharto regime. In the absence of genuinely democratic institutions and conventions, the political transition is more than likely to be a period of prolonged turmoil. The army which has always played a major role in Indonesian politics and is popularly seen as a force for stability, has chosen for the time being to lend legitimacy to Suharto8217;s successor by backing him. But as economic pain increases with an expected runaway rate of inflation and cascading loss of jobs, the present arrangement may have to give way to a more overt military role in order to maintain peace and stability. In that event, the armed forces chief,General Wintaro, looks like the probable if reluctant candidate for the top job.

An optimistic view is that interim army rule would give time for a civilian leadership from the ranks of opponents of the present regime to strengthen itself by building democratic alliances. At the present showing, such an alternative would have to emerge from amongst the Muslim organisation led by Amein Rais, the Democratic party led, until Suharto engineered her removal, by Megawati Sukarnoputri, and other small and colourless parties with links to the former president and the army. It is not an encouraging scenario. Time is not on the side of the forces for an open, popularly accountable system in Indonesia. The economy has fallen hard, domestic and foreign investor confidence is at its lowest ever. Reform policies mandated by the IMF to pull the economy out of its tailspin cannot but increase social unrest. The hope is that multilateral financial agencies and Indonesia8217;s major trading partners will act swiftly and wiselyto forestall further chaos and the inevitable region-wide impact.