Series hinges on two defining factors

He is fitter now and more committed and remains the only player in the series who can run through a side in a spell. Accordingly, he can lead the attack and allow the admirable Rana Naved-ul Hasan to do his job quietly. Strangely, Naved is an under-rated bowler but nobody is growing faster than he is at his craft and anybody who believes that the other end is the place to be when Shoaib is in the middle of a spell has a surprise coming his way. He moves the ball beautifully and can be sharp, in the 140 category. India have nobody there, Pakistan have three.

That is why I believe one of the two defining factors in this series will be how long India’s openers keep the middle order insulated from the new ball. It is something Sehwag and Aakash Chopra did very well on two good tours. It will be the difference between a well-set batsman playing the support cast of bowlers and a charged up fast bowler bowling to the middle order.

The other factor that tends to influence a lot of series is how the bottom five go head to head against each other with the bat. India probably win that 4-1 on batting reputation though we need to factor the quality of bowling they will be facing into that. Akmal rated higher than Dhoni at the moment but you would rather have a tail of Pathan, Agarkar, Kumble and Zaheer (or Harbhajan in that mix) than Shoaib, Naved, Sami and Kaneria.

The captains will go head to head as well (contrary to the views of some, the coaches won’t!) and Inzamam has a little advantage here for he is well settled into his job and having been through rough times knows what not to do. He always had respect as a batsman, he now has it as a leader as well and that is significant in Pakistan for they have a history of rebelling against captains. That won’t happen here. He is batting as well as he ever has, ageing gracefully and stylishly. And now he doesn’t have to worry about either Shoaib or Yousuf, two who could undermine his authority.

Dravid has been let down a bit by the selectors and his manager; the selectors should have taken the hard decision but they have left him holding the baby and the manager has added fuel to a raging fire. India have sent a rookie selector out for the first Test when really the chairman should have been the one present; if indeed they were meant to help the tour panel in the first place. His success will lie in carving two separate halves in his mind, one for the captain and the other for the batsman. But he is a strong man and aggression will characterise his approach.

There is not too much to choose. The calmer, more relaxed side will win.