If South Block thinks it has enough of a problem managing the tangled ties with Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal, it should think again. Sri Lanka could soon join that list, following the closely fought presidential election that saw a simultaneous stoking of majority Sinhala nationalism and a manipulation of minority Tamil resentment. As a result the peace process between Colombo and the LTTE, launched in February 2002, is bound to come under greater stress and test India’s own recent relaxed attitude to Sri Lanka.Mahinda Rajapakse, before he became president, sought to allay some of these fears by signaling an intent to reach out directly to LTTE boss, Velupillai Prabahakaran. His credibility with the LTTE, however, is low. His narrow victory was built around a platform that challenged the notion of federalism, so central to the peace process. Rajapakse’s main ally was the Janata Vimukta Perumana, that has championed Sinhala chauvinism. His rural populism boosted the potency of this ultra-nationalist cocktail and generated a strong showing in Sinhala majority areas. But it was the fiendish decision by Prabhakaran to prevent, in his northern strongholds, the Tamil community from voting that ensured the defeat of Ranil Wickremesinghe, who had boldly broken with the majoritarian mould of Sinhala politics during his tenure as president. He was the one who generated the long awaited pause in the island’s brutal civil war and gave hope to reasonable elements within Tamil and Muslim minorities. That the LTTE deliberately ensured his defeat reinforces the suspicion that Prabhakaran is itching to renew the civil war.As a hard line prevails on both sides of the divide in Lanka, India would inevitably be called upon to prevent a breakdown of the peace process. Its ability to constructively assist Sri Lanka at this dangerous moment, however, has been badly compromised by the UPA government’s reprehensible surrender to its political allies in Tamil Nadu whose sympathies with the LTTE are well known. If Prime Minister Manmohan Singh does not quickly reclaim national control over the Sri Lanka policy, there is a great danger that India may well become a part of the problem.
