
A closer assessment of the Kargil conflagration led the Sensex to take a U turn today. The index posted gain of a whopping 189 points gain to close at 3963. Its next target would now be 4079.
On Friday, values had dipped, on account of precautionary squaring off of positions by operators. In the process, there was an inbuilt opportunity to make a quick gain at most of the counters.
This resulted in scrip prices making a sharp gain right at the opening. These gains were well sustained. The immediate next move in the bourse will be dictated by the profit potential, which is still left to be tapped on most of the counters.
On the flip side, there could ofcourse be a nagging worry about possible escalation in the border conflict. However, operators seem to have drawn comfort from a combination of firm military action alongside efforts at the diplomatic level to contain and manage the issue.
If this perception continues, the index has the potential to rise up to 4079. On the daily charts the stochastic has signalled a buy. On the weekly charts the buy signal for long term investors is green.
The strength of the bull undercurrent can be gauged from the market breadth data given below.
The number of advances at the BSE went up from 240 to 811, with advance volumes taking a U turn with a vengeance, going up from Rs 77 crore to Rs 1332 crore. The number of scrips in decline went down sharply from 1014 to 221, with decline volumes from Rs 1670 crore to Rs 489 crore. At the NSE, the number of scrips in advance raced up from 143 to 740, with advance volumes from Rs 725 crore to Rs 1844 crore. The number of declines has gone down from 769 to 167 declines, with volume in decline going down from Rs 1727 crore to Rs 864 crore.
If one were to judge the mood of the market player, he has made a bold move to tap the immediate gain. And with a better appreciation of what is involved in Kargil, he may now proceed to hold long and add to his positions. Even the FIIs are unlikely to let go off this opportunity.