Process in pieces

New Delhi must address Musharraf8217;s refusal or incapacity to rein in jihadi violence

As Prime Minister Manmohan Singh reaches out to Jammu and Kashmir this week and explores forward movement with Pakistan on Siachen and Sir Creek disputes, Sunday8217;s terrorist attacks in Srinagar must force a reconsideration of the basic assumption on the peace process. To be sure, some disruption from the jihadi groups on the eve of his second round table with Kashmiri leaders was anticipated. The government has rightly said it would not let the cowardly attack undermine its resolve to pursue political reconciliation with the people of J038;K. Yet, India will find it increasingly difficult to ignore the growing frequency of terrorist violence in Kashmir as well as the refusal of Hurriyat factions to sustain commitment to talks.

When the peace process was launched in January 2004, the essence of the deal was simple.

India would engage Pakistan in a purposeful dialogue on J038;K and Islamabad would help create an atmosphere free of violence. Pakistan8217;s President, Pervez Musharraf, has certainly brought down the levels of cross-border infiltration. But he has shown little inclination to rein in the jihadis in Kashmir. Amidst a series of terrorist incidents over the last six months from Delhi to Doda, from Bangalore to Benares, questions about his willingness and capability to control the jihadi violence and his interest in sustaining the peace process with India need to be addressed squarely.

Some of it might be related to the dynamics of the peace process. But it might have more to do with the growing political weakness of Musharraf. His domestic popularity is on a rapid decline. His war in Waziristan and Balochistan is ineffective, costly and unpopular. The reforms of his technocrat prime minister, Shaukat Aziz, have begun to face the inevitable popular backlash. Musharraf is also under international pressure to hold free and fair elections in 2007 and is visibly rattled at the potential return of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. As a resurgent Taliban mounts bold attacks in Afghanistan, both Kabul and Washington are angry at his policy. If Musharraf8217;s survival strategy demands a renewed reliance on religious extremism, India may no longer find him a reliable partner in the peace process.