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Journalism of Courage
The last 10 finals have been contested by just six different teams, yet bookmakers have a consistently unimpressive record in their predictions. Take a look at this:
The French connection: France began as 14-1 shots, slipped to 25-1 after the first two draws – vs Switzerland and South Korea. In memory were the miserable performances in the 2002 Cup and in Euro 2004, plus qualification struggle, plus some woeful friendlies, plus an ageing squad.
The Italian conundrum: Italy, going for their fourth world title, looked better, but could still be backed at 10-1 before the first game of a tough Group E where Czech Republic and the United States were both ranked above them.
The Brazilian bust: Brazil were the heavy 5-2 favourites with British bookmakers, followed by Argentina, Germany and England. A repeat of the 2002 Brazil v Germany final was a 14-1 shot but Italy v France was a 50-1 scenario! Now that they are there, the bookies remain a little confused.
The favourites: Heavy backing of Italy since the semi-finals has established them as slight favourites.
Four years ago:
• The two finalists wore short odds. France (3-1 favourites) failed to get out of their group and Italy (5-1) were knocked out in the second round by South Korea.
• Germany: Thumped 1-5 at home in qualifying by England and condemned by many as the worst team in memory defied odds of 20-1 to reach the final.
• Brazil, lost an unprecedented six qualifiers, lost friendly to Honduras and Australia: priced out as 7-1. They won the title for the fifth time.
— Mitch Phillips
