Prabhakaran holds key to Lankan elections

quot;Like it or not, Prabhakaran and the LTTE are two factors that cannot be ignored,quot; said a Western diplomat.

The elections are being widely seen as a referendum on President Chandrika Kumaratunga8217;s constitution that aims to devolve powers to regions, including one administered by Tamils to give them a political alternative to the separatist LTTE.

Kumaratunga was forced to shelve the constitution last month due to rising opposition from majority Sinhala nationalists, but has said she would push it through on winning the election.

The LTTE, which has rejected the constitution, would make all attempts to ensure that the PA does not get a majority in parliament which would help Kumaratunga resuscitate the bill.

The main opposition United National Party UNP, on the other hand, has promised to call for a ceasefire and talk to the LTTE if it wins power.

quot;The LTTE is obviously more comfortable with the UNP in power and will do what it can to undermine the People8217;s Alliance8217;s PA campaign,quot; said Kethesh Loganathan of the Centre for Policy Alternatives, an independent think-tank.

Analysts said the LTTE could influence the outcome of the polls by either putting up proxy candidates from areas it controls or gaining fresh ground in its war against the military.

LTTE controls a huge swathe of the Wanni and Jaffna electoral districts, which will return 16 of 225 new lawmakers.

quot;There has been speculation for sometime that the LTTE will use proxy candidates in the elections and my hunch is that is a strategy they are most likely to adopt,quot; Loganathan said.

If proxy candidates win, they can comfortably swing the close parliamentary vote expected on Kumaratunga8217;s constitution in the months to come as it appears that neither the PA nor the UNP is likely to get an absolute majority.

The government is also under pressure to recapture territory lost to the LTTE in the northern Jaffna peninsula.

Its strategy became evident earlier this week when the military launched a brief but bloody offensive in Jaffna.

Hundreds of combatants were killed and wounded in the fiercest fighting since an LTTE campaign to recapture the peninsula appeared to run out of steam in May.

quot;There is no doubt that the offensive was linked to the elections,quot; said Jehan Perera, media director of the National Peace Council.

quot;The LTTE has been promising to re-take Jaffna in 2000 and the government can8217;t afford to let that happen,quot; he added.

Military officials and diplomats say more fighting could be expected in the run-up to the elections as a government loss could see Sinhala nationaist parties eat into the PA votes.

The LTTE is known to take sides in elections and they have ruthlessly assassinated those seen to be against their cause.

In 1994 the LTTE, preferring to do business with Kumaratunga, assassinated the UNP presidential candidate Gamini Dissanayke.

Kumaratunga launched peace talks with the rebels. But after they broke down in 1995 she ordered the military to crush the LTTE, prompting Prabhakaran to denounce her as quot;a curse on the Tamilsquot; in a speech ahead of the 1999 presidential polls.

Soon after Kumaratunga was lucky to survive a suicide bomb attack during an election rally days before she won a second six-year term as president last December.