Population greying, elderly numbers rising fast

By 2026 the population of the elderly in India is expected to more than double. While it was 71 million in 2001...

By 2026 the population of the elderly in India is expected to more than double. While it was 71 million in 2001, a report prepared by the Census of India shows that it will reach 173 million in the next 19 years.

Concerned at the new figures, officials in the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare are considering recommending that all major hospitals in the country have a geriatrics department to take care of the health-related problems of senior citizens.

8220;There are rarely any hospitals in the country dealing specifically with the problems of the elderly. There was a proposal to set up one at AIIMS, but that could not fructify. Keeping in view the latest report, there is a need to focus on opening geriatrics departments. We hope to start with the major hospitals of the country,8221; said a senior official in the ministry.

The projections for the number of elderly were made keeping in mind the trends in growth rate, total fertility rate TFR, mortality rate and migration rates.

By the same yardstick, the population of the country is expected to increase from 1,029 million in 2001 to 1,400 million in 2026 8212;- an increase of 36 per cent at a rate of 1.2 per cent annually.

The report also indicates that the birth rate will decline from 23.2 per cent in 2001-05 to 16 per cent in 2021-25. At the same time, the death rate will fall, though marginally, as better medical facilities prolong life expectancy.

As a result, 8220;The proportion of the population below 15 years will decline from 35.4 to 23.4 per cent, while the proportion of the elderly 60 years and above is set to increase considerably.8221;

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While the proportion of the population in the working age group, 15-59 years, is also expected to rise from 57.7 per cent in 2001 to 64.3 per cent in 2026, their number too will be lower than the rise in the number of elderly. The infant mortality rate, which was 63 per 1,000 births in 2002, is estimated to decline to 61 in 2001-05 and to 40 by the end of 2021-25. The youth population, in the age group of 15-24 years, is expected to increase from 195 million in 2001 to 240 million in 2011, and then decrease to 224 million in 2026.

8220;Twenty-two per cent of the total population increase in India during 2001-26, of 371 million, is anticipated to occur in Uttar Pradesh alone,8221; says the report.