PM talks snap polls, BJP gears up for fire-fighting

However, some political analysts believe that Vajpayee8217;s unexpected statement could be in the nature of shock treatment aimed at keeping the coalition in tact to avoid the threat of mid-term polls.

In any case, nervous BJP leaders have already begun looking ahead towhat is expected to be a very tricky Parliament session indeed. The session begins on November 30, two days after the results, and could see the start of changes in political equations.

A rout in Delhi and Rajasthan is staring the BJP in the face and the only saving grace is Madhya Pradesh, where it is poised to wrest power from the Congress 8211; though not with the sweeping majority that leaders were predicting. Had MP not turned up trumps for the BJP, the party 8211; and its Central government 8211; would have been in deep trouble.

As it is, the BJP8217;s allies are expected to take advantage of their senior partner8217;s weakened position, even if they do not withdraw support immediately. Signs of their assertiveness were already visible before the elections and they are now likely to demand a greater say in the functioning of the coalition and insist on regular Coordination Committee meetings. In all this, Defence Minister and Samata Party chief George Fernandes could emerge as a powerful fulcrum.

Cabinet expansion,which has been put off several times, is now scheduled in January, after the winter session of Parliament. And Vajpayee may be forced to induct more ministers from allied parties 8211; at the cost of BJP MPs.

Within the BJP, trouble may be afoot not only in Delhi and Rajasthan but also in MP, where a leadership tussle could begin over who should be the chief minister. The odds are in favour of Sunderlal Patwa, who is also close to BJP President Kushabhau Thakre. But there is also a strong anti-Patwa feeling among partymen and younger leaders like Vikram Verma are waiting to grab their place in the sun.

In Delhi, the burning question is what will happen to current Chief Minister Sushma Swaraj. During the election campaign she had averred that she was in Delhi politics to stay. But would she like to be the leader of the Opposition heading a small legislature party? Swaraj has not resigned her Lok Sabha seat and her two ministries Communications and I and B have been kept vacant following a tacit understandingwith BJP bosses that she could return to the Union government after the elections if necessary.

Then there is the question of what happens to Madan Lal Khurana and Sahib Singh Verma, whose feud has possibly contributed to the BJP8217;s abysmal showing in Delhi. Verma had been promised a berth in the Cabinet when he was unceremoniously replaced by Swaraj. But after the results this is now an open question. Khurana is expected to point out to BJP bosses that the party8217;s performance is a result of his being sidelined.

In Rajasthan, the BJP will now have to find a successor to Chief Minister Bhairon Singh Shekhawat besides accommodating him suitably in the party structure. This election could be the last electoral battle that an old and ailing Shekhawat has fought. For decades, he has been the undisputed titan of the BJP in Rajasthan and replacing him will not be easy. But younger leaders in the state unit are likely to insist that he makes way for a new face.