Pawar Switched On

It’s of even greater significance in state politics. Although the Congress was the leader of the alliance, the real winner in Maharashtra is Sharad Pawar whose tireless campaigning and vast network built over decades yielded a rich harvest, enabling the NCP to emerge as the single largest party in the new Assembly and a claimant for the status of “big brother” as well as the post of chief minister.

The NCP contested only 124 seats compared to 157 by the Congress, but won 71 (a gain of 12 from 1999) while the Congress won 69 (a loss of six.)

If the ailing Maratha lion is the biggest winner of the polls—he’s never crossed 60 seats before—the ageing Maratha tiger, Balasaheb Thackeray, has beaten BJP leader Pramod Mahajan to the title of biggest loser.

The Shiv Sena may have won more seats (62) than its junior partner BJP (54), but the Sena-BJP’s losses in its bastions of Mumbai and Konkan can be attributed to the demoralisation in the Sena ranks in light of the thinly disguised Uddhav versus Raj Thackeray battle which the patriarch failed to quell.

‘‘I will be at home,’’ Uddhav told The Sunday Express when the results were in. ‘‘I have no comments.’’

For father Bal Thackeray, whose failing health prevented him from carrying out an extensive state-wide campaign, this election was crucial. A victory would have meant revitalisation of the Sena after five years in the opposition and also paved the way for the anointment of son Uddhav Thackeray as his successor. Today’s defeat could mean the beginning of the end for Balasaheb and also bring out into the open the deep schisms within the party organisation.

Since Uddhav’s “moderate” face has failed to swing the party’s fortunes, the Sena stormtroopers are likely to consolidate behind the far more aggressive Raj with his unabashed Marathi chauvinist outlook.

As in the epic Mahabharata, the “maha yudh” in Maharashtra also had a series of sub-plots, with bit players trying to complicate the battlefield. But in an ironic repeat of the Lok Sabha results, the Maharashtra verdict too has dashed the “king maker” ambitions of both Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati.

Neither SP nor BSP won a single seat, underlining that the people of Maharashtra prefer home grown entities such as the Peasants and Workers Party or indigenous “bandkhors” (rebels) to encroachers from UP.

The results also show that both the BSP and the rebel factor—particularly the former—were overestimated. As it turns out, the NCP-Congress combine will not need the help of “rebels” to form the government (the CPM’s three MLAs and PWP’s two will suffice).

But given that most of the winning rebels left the ruling combine just on the eve of elections, many of them could head back home now that their parent parties are back in power.

Despite the overall success of the NCP-Congress combine, the Sena-BJP remain a formidable force in many parts of the state. The saffron combine, for instance, has increased its gains in the Marathwada region which accounts for 46 seats. Since the plentiful rains had washed away the ravages of drought here, one big reason for their good showing is the anti-Muslim, anti-Dalit consolidation that the Sena has established in Marathwada since the early 1990s. BJP state chief Gopinath Munde’s efforts to focus on the OBC vote has also proved effective.

Their gains in Marathwada, however, could not offset the losses in Mumbai, Konkan, and North Maharashtra (a traditional Congress stronghold till the saffron combine made huge inroads here in the 1990s). In Mumbai, the very vocal support of non-Marathis and minorities for the Congress appears to have resulted in a last-minute Marathi consolidation, with the Sena-BJP managing to cling onto its traditional seats. But in the absence of the “cementing” influence of Hindutva, the saffron combine failed to recoup from its Lok Sabha losses in the nation’s commercial capital.

While reverses were expected in Mumbai, the “cracking” of the Konkan fortress is possibly the biggest setback for the Sena. Unless the Thackeray family puts its house in order and pays attention to this region, the Sena could end up losing its hold to a visibly ascendant NCP in Konkan.

In Vidarbha, the much talked of BSP’s elephant turned out to be much tamer than the wild pachyderm it was made out to be. But with the two alliances winning roughly the same number of seats, the Congress can hardly afford to be complacent about the growing inroads of the saffron combine in this erstwhile Congress bastion. That leaves Western Maharashtra—the home ground of the “sugar barons.” A number of successful rebels may have dented the tally of the NCP-Congress since 1999, but it continues to remain the NCP’s bastion.

Western Maharashtra is also significant because it is one area where the NCP successfully challenged the parent Congress in 1999. Though the two parties have come together now, the eclipse of the “old Congress” to the new Congress represented by the NCP could be repeated in other regions of the state as well.

In the end, the Maharashtra results only proves that nothing succeeds like success—it was the UPA victory in May, the goodwill generated by Sonia’s “sacrifice”, and Sharad Pawar’s relentless campaign that a “friendly” Central government was crucial for Maharashtra that ultimately swung the results the NCP-Congress way.

The Democratic Front government’s indifferent performance had little to do with it.