Patnaik vs Patnaik vs BJP

FEBRUARY 3: It is said the only real contest in Orissa is between Patnaik and Patnaik, one of whom is no longer alive and the other recent...

FEBRUARY 3: It is said the only real contest in Orissa is between Patnaik and Patnaik, one of whom is no longer alive and the other recently resurrected. Biju Patnaik had a long if uneven political innings and towards the end was allowed to preside over the affairs of the state like a patriarch. That and his successors’ inadequacies ensure that his memory lingers on. J B Patnaik has had a longish spell in the wilderness during which a lack of visibility did not indicate a complete lack of activity.

He has now reasserted himself as the most powerful Congress boss with the high command’s tacit support. It may be a bit harsh on everyone else to reduce the polls to a tussle between two old warhorses. But it is essentially true of a polarised Assembly election that the Congress under J B Patnaik will be ranged against a Biju Janata Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party alliance whose most prominent face is Navin Patnaik, a politician who having failed to make his own mark is accepted as the political heir of the late BijuPatnaik.

The Congress is contesting all but two of the 147 Assembly seats. Those two it has in a fit of generosity, much misunderstood within its own ranks, left to the Janata Dal (U) and the Janata Dal (S). An eleventh-hour seat-sharing agreement has given the BJD 84 seats and the BJP 63. There is unhappiness in all three parties. It would be surprising if there were not. Of the three, the leaders of the Congress and the BJD in that order should have reason to worry over the post-nomination scene. After they were denied seats, several Congress ministers and party office-bearers quit the party and filed their nominations as independents.

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In two-cornered contests rebels spell trouble for the Congress because the votes they pick up will be at the expense of the official party candidate. The rebels on their part calculate that one or the other side will have use for them in the event of a close outcome. Not all unhappy Congress persons are dissidents. Some like K C Lenka, a senior leader who turned down aticket, have only expressed disapproval of the powers-that-be but even that is painful at poll time. The Congress has also been denied the opportunity to make a display of unity by the refusal of former chief ministers to accept tickets. What magic charm will be used to ward off the effects of the anti-incumbency factor is not known but Patnaik is striking a confident pose.

The BJD has not struck a bargain with the BJP that it can crow about in Orissa. It was reluctant from the start to cede more than 50 seats to the BJP. Having held out almost to the last minute, Navin Patnaik might have been expected to get endorsement of his name as chief minister in return for the 63 seats given to the BJP. But that prize has eluded him. The BJP is not ready to make concessions and has merely put off this prickly issue for the time being. In this uneasy partnership the BJD appears very much on the defensive. After a strong Lok Sabha performance the BJP is aiming to emerge as the single largest party. Ironically, the BJDand the Congress will both try to make sure that does not happen.