
Pakistan is close to increasing several-fold its ability to make weapon-grade plutonium through two atomic reactors it is building and the development could exacerbate a nuclear arms race with India, a US think tank has said.
The Institute for Science and International Security ISIS said it had obtained commercial satellite imagery in February, May and September this year that showed Pakistan was nearing completion of the second plutonium production reactor in Khushab.
The images show a 8220;clearly visible row of cooling towers, typically built in the later phase of reactor construction8221; and the second reactor could 8220;start in a year8221;, said a report issued by ISIS.
It said work was also underway on a third plutonium production reactor in Khushab. Satellite imagery obtained on September 3 showed that 8220;the roof of the third Khushab reactor hall is not yet placed on top and the reactor vessel can be seen inside8221;.
8220;Once completed, these reactors will increase several-fold Pakistan8217;s ability to make weapon-grade plutonium for nuclear weapons,8221; the report said. 8220;The wider implication of Pakistan increasing its plutonium production capacity must not be overlooked. There is a real risk that it will exacerbate an India-Pakistan nuclear arms race and increase tensions more broadly between the two,8221; it said.
A priority for the US should be 8220;a verified cut-off of the production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons in South Asia and worldwide,8221; ISIS said.
Both India and Pakistan have not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty and went nuclear after testing atomic weapons in 1998. The Nuclear Suppliers Group recently approved a waiver to its rules to allow India to acquire technology and know-how as part of the civil nuclear deal with the US. Pakistan has been seeking a similar exemption, saying there should not be any discrimination towards its efforts to acquire equipment and know-how to boost the generation of atomic power.
The Khushab nuclear site in Punjab province originally consisted of one heavy-water reactor with a power of about 50 MW and a heavy water production facility. Details about the construction of the second and third reactors emerged in 2006 and 2007.
ISIS said while 8220;Pakistan has not sought to conceal the construction of these reactors, it still has not spoken publicly about their power, treating the subject as a state secret8221;.
The construction of additional cooling towers, revealed by satellite imagery obtained by ISIS this month, 8220;imply that the new reactors could be larger than the first one8221;.
8220;No electricity production equipment is seen in the satellite images. This is consistent with the purpose of the reactors being to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons,8221; the report said.
It said that if each of the two new reactors 8220;operates at 100 megawatts-thermal8221;, they could produce 8220;enough plutonium for eight to 10 nuclear weapons per year8221;. The first Khushab reactor8217;s plutonium production capacity is about two to three nuclear weapons a year.