One step forward, two steps back

Today, the probability of another IRA ceasefire has been further reduced and the Northern Irish peace process hangs in balance. Anger in Ulster8217;s mainly Catholic Nationalist or Republican community has boiled over. And the Government will have to tread carefully to contain this and put the peace process back on track.

When Tony Blair announced his proposal, agreed to by the outgoing Irish prime minister John Bruton, for moving the peace talks forward last week, he knew that no decision on the proposals from the Nationalists or the mainly Protestant Unionists those who support the continuing union with Britain would be possible before Sunday, July 6. A day on which, for the past several years, Unionism and Nationalism have faced each other across police barricades in the town of Portadown. So far, with what the Nationalists see as the connivance of the Government and police, the Unionists have won8217; in the stand-off.

Each summer, the Northern Ireland8217;s Unionists celebrate their ties to Britain with marches to commemorate victorious events in British history. The marching season8217;, as it is known, culminates on July 12 with a march to commemorate the defeat of the Catholic King James the Second by William of Orange at the River Boyne in 1690. On July 6, the Orange Order8217; in the town of Portadown, south of Belfast, marches through the town after mass at a church in Drumcree, taking a route through the mainly Catholic Garvaghy Road. To the residents of Garvaghy Road this amounts to spitting in their face. The Unionists insist that they are only celebrating their Britishness, the Nationalists says that they are triumphantly crowing at a historical injustice.

In 1995 and 1996, efforts to re-route the march or even to ban it failed. The authorities were forced to allow the march through after Protestant violence brought the country to a standstill. On each occasion, the police, the armed Royal Ulster Constabulary RUC, beefed up by the Army blockaded the residents of Garvaghy Road into the estate, sealing of all exits to the road. This year the same thing happened. The only difference was that the Nationalist community did not expect this to happen. The new Northern Ireland secretary, Marjorie Mowlam, had adopted a more hands-on approach from the day she was appointed, talking to both sides until the end.

Mowlam said that she had to balance two sets of rights. The right of the Catholics to live in peace, and without fear of intimidation and the Protestant8217;s right to march. In an atmosphere where government action has for too long been seen to support the Unionists, she said that any decision that was taken would be conveyed directly to the representatives of the Garvaghy Road residents. She did not. Instead, according to eye-witnesses, the RUC and the Army took residents by surprise as they took over Garvaghy Road, and the alley and by-lanes around it, beating back those who had gathered to protest with batons.

The Chief Constable of the RUC, Ronnie Flannagan said that he had taken this decision because it was the lesser of two evils8217;. He said that this was the only way to ensure that the least amount of blood was spilt. Flannagan admitted that threats by Protestant terrorist groups to kill Catholics in the Republic of Ireland, and death threats against the residents of Garvaghy Road had played a part in his decision. This to the Nationalists is only a sign of the authorities8217; continuing willingness to cave into pressure from Unionism, militant or otherwise.

Last week, Sinn Fein President, Gerry Adams, said that Drumcree was the test by which Blair must prove he was different from Major in his approach to Northern Ireland. Writing in the Irish News, Adams said that Orangemen had a right to march, but not in Catholic areas, where their presence was offensive and that allowing the Protestant parade to go down Garvaghy road would 8220;8230;say to Nationalists that Unionists rule, whether it is on the streets or at the negotiation table.8221;

Now Northern Ireland is preparing for a Nationalist backlash. Sinn Fein8217;s chief negotiator Martin McGuinness told a crowd of several thousand nationalists at a rally outside Londonderry8217;s police headquarters on Sunday night, 8220;The place to be demanding justice is on the streets confronting your opponents. The turnout in the Six Counties of Ulster over the next couple of weeks will show the Nationalist community is determined to get justice and peace for the people of Ireland.8221; Moderate Nationalists, like Labour8217;s sister party in Northern Ireland, the Social Democrat and Labour Party, also said that the Government8217;s decision was the wrong one, and a SDLP councillor in Portadown said unequivocally that the new government had betrayed the Nationalist community.

The SDLP understands only too well that it is events like these which bolster popular support for the extremist groups. Across the wide spectrum of Nationalism, the sense of injustice is strong, and in their fight to control the hearts and minds of their8217; people on the ground even the moderates cannot, for the moment, be seen to differ on tactics with Sinn Fein. The British Government has, by allowing the march in Portadown to go down the Garvaghy Road, forced itself into a confrontation with Irish nationalism. It has also created another opportunity for the militants to claim that they are the ones who protect the Nationalists as the State consistently fails them.

Portadown is a tactical gain for the Republican movement led by Sinn Fein. The power of militant republicanism, defined by support for the IRA, is on the decline. Support for militant republicanism, from across the Atlantic is also no longer unequivocal. The murder of two policemen last fortnight caused revulsion even among the US8217; core Irish nationalist lobby. President Clinton has also come out strongly in favour of Blair8217;s time-table, which includes the peace train8217; leaving Sinn Fein behind, if it cannot accept the Anglo-Irish proposals. But, Sinn Fein, which now has two MPs, has gained legitimacy through elections and cannot be ignored in any all party8217; peace process.

By caving into the Unionists, the Government has given Sinn Fein more room to manoeuvre, and the ball which was supposed to be in Sinn Fein8217;s court may well have been tossed across the barricades into the government8217;s.