NGRI scientists predict quake in central India

More than 930 shocks were recorded in the last 50 days, 14 of which were 3 or above in magnitude. The underground rumblings have already resulted in cracks to several houses in Pandhana village which has a population of more than 12,000.

The entire region, with a population of more than two lakhs, had already been declared as a seismic 8220;hot spot8221; by NGRI.

8220;Though it8217;svery difficult to predict the occurrence of the earthquakes, the repeated shocks in the Khandwa region are definitely not a good sign. Similar rumblings were reported from Killari area in Latur district before a powerful quake hit the region on September 30, 1993,8221; Negi said.

The present activity on the Barwani-Sukta fault is threatening and it might have been triggered by the earthquakes at Killari and Jabalpur May 22, 1997, he told The Indian Express. Negi said that though activity was reported from the Khandwa region at present, the possibility of it shifting to other regions along the fault cannot be ruled out.

In this context, he cited the example of the Jabalpur quake when a precursor of magnitude 4 on Richter scale was felt in Madanmahal area while the original activity of magnitude 6 occurred at some other place.

Interestingly, all the major earthquakes of magnitudes five and above occurred between 6 pm and 7.30 am going by the history of seismic activity in the Indian shield. Moreparticularly, five out of the eight major events of the century took place in the early morning between 4 a.m. and 7.30 a.m.

Negi said that occurrence of quakes in particular timings was a strange and unexplained phenomenon which was confined only to India and that more detailed studies have to be conducted to ascertain the causes behind it.

Negi, who undertook a tour of Khandwa region recently, said that efforts were on to create awareness among people so that loss of life, in case of any eventuality, would be minimised.

Meanwhile, several seismologists of NGRI were of the opinion that lack of proper perspective on the part of state and Central Governments to formulate a seismological policy and absence of a full-fledged exclusive seismological centre has contributed significantly to the huge loss of life and property every time a quake occurred.

Even smaller countries like Nepal had a number of laboratories and adequate number of seismologists while there were only about 50 to 60 reputedseismologists in the entire country.

8220;Despite loss of more than Rs 2,000 crore property during the Jabalpur quake, the MP government is indifferent to taking up precautionary measures. The situation is so bad that even as the World Bank grant to set up seismological stations at Khandwa, Latur and Koyna is about to lapse in December, no effort has been made to procure any equipment,8221; said a senior scientist.

Stating that there were several vulnerable zones including the Godavari valley, they said though it was difficult to predict the exact time of occurrence, the presence of seismological expertise would make it easier to give out the probable magnitudes besides enabling preliminary preparations to combat the calamity.