Monsoon games

The last week has seen cessation of rains in other parts also, causing worry. Krishi Bhavan, not to be out done has, in a not very publicised statement, made it clear that 8216;8216;farmers are advised to undertake sowing of late sown variety of cereals and/or pulses as and when such rains occur8217;8217;. The last part is ominous, the earlier part easier said than done, when seeds are expensive and varieties depend on market availability.

It is not just the facts of the monsoon but responses to it which cause concern. There was a time when a failure of rains really damaged the national economy. A few years ago, I had shown that growth of the national economy is not only higher, it is more stable. There were only three years since the mid-seventies when growth was less than three per cent. In earlier decades, this would be true for five years out of ten. Facts may change but mindsets do not. The instinctive reaction of official spokesmen, set from earlier days when the economy was a gamble on the monsoon, is to deny the failure of rain or play it down. This also means that business-like reactions to the drought become difficult.

If the facts are recognised, a number of steps become possible. Available water in reservoirs can be optimally scheduled. The extension mechanisms can be really energised into both crop and variety responses. In Rajasthan and MP, where acute hunger emerges very soon in certain pockets and most certainly for some sections of the population like women-headed households, advance planning is possible given the mountain of grain we have. This is also the time to start a large number of small projects on water conservation and the more efficient use of water that we have all been arguing for. More generally the macro response should be to release grain in stock, for this is the eventuality for which it is stocked.

Inflation need not be a fear any more. The reaction, however, will probably be to underplay or deny the facts. This leads to two interesting consequences. The first is political. The political personalities of the affected areas get into the act. Any chance that there is of a measured response for those who are affected the most gets lost. Every one, as P. Sainath said in his delightful book, loves a drought. A famous political leader was able to get saris for the families of his partymen in one such episode. The reports of the CAG on drought expenditures make very depressing reading. The lack of an information-based measured response to rainfall failure and an exaggerated political reaction are two sides of the same coin. Another aspect of climate and agriculture in India is the fact that we tend to ignore the diversity of the country. A wag once said that when it rains outside Krishi Bhawan, the crop estimate goes up!

There is really no such thing as 8216;the monsoon8217;. Rainfall varies in each of the many meteorological regions of the country. Years of good rainfall have made us forget this diversity. A year of average rainfall can also mean extreme deficit rainfall in some areas. Also early failures can be compensated by late rains, but all such deviations have costs. Pre-sowing rain failure and early failures mean loss of output and higher costs. Later failures mean less yield.

In the last few years we have done well in forecasting the monsoon as average rainfall. But we have also done a lot of research on the rainfall patterns at the level of each of our meteorological regions. It is this for which we had borrowed a super computer from the US in the late eighties and later developed our own capabilities. By now we have reasonable explanations of the weather phenomenon at the area level. This information should be disgorged from the MET and shared with the farmer and rural communities on an ongoing, real time basis. The MET should have MOUs with farming groups to develop the use of their medium-term weather forecasts. At present, even though they are ready, they don8217;t reach the user. As a result, the vagaries of the monsoon 8212; instead of becoming a physical phenomenon that we understand and solve 8212; becomes another pawn in coalition politics.