Mini cyclone in Patnaik country

The aim of the survey was to size up results for the parliament and assembly seats. Orissa is one of the states to go for simultaneous polls for the parliament and state assembly.

The survey predicts a big slash in the BJP-BJD combine8217;s share of parliamentary seats. Out of a total 21 seats in the parliament, last time the coalition got 19, leaving only 2 for the Congress. Out of 19, BJD had bagged 10 and its ally BJP 9. The latest survey pegs the tally at 12.

Says a senior BJP leader: 8216;8216;It is really worrying. The party high command in Delhi has already been informed and damage control steps are underway.8217;8217;

The impact of the survey is reflected in a distinct increase in the intensity of core committee and coordination meetings of both parties. One of the reasons for a delay in finalising the list of candidates is attributed to this survey result. Publicly, at least the coalition is putting up a brave front saying: 8216;8216;A lot many changes in the ground situation will take place as the poll dates draw closer.8217;8217; No one disputes that.

The damage control measures include swapping of seats in at least 10 assembly segments and induction of new faces as contestants. A senior BJD leader from Bhadrak points out: 8216;8216;If the BJD leadership is bold enough to drastically remove old faces, it will be able to hold on to the seats. If it dithers, there will be disaster.8217;8217;

If the parliament outcome was not harsh enough for the 8216;shining8217; India champions, the survey had more shocks regarding the assembly polls. It gives the BJD-BJP combine about 80 seats8212;down almost by 30 from last time. It also says that at the time it was carried out, voters in about 40-45 constituencies were yet to decide whom to vote for. Majority of the 8216;undecided constituencies8217; were incidentally won by the BJD-BJP combine during the last election.

The findings have sent the state leadership scurrying for remedy. According to senior BJP-BJD leaders, the chances of reversal of prospects are anticipated mostly in the coastal belt for BJD and in the tribal belts of Mayurbhanj and Keonjhar for the BJP.

Senior BJP leaders say in the last election the party had to limit itself to mostly tribal belts. The BJD at that time guided by a host of shrewd politicians8212; most of whom have now joined the Congress8212;did not leave any room for the BJP to make inroads in the coastal belt. 8216;8216;The party may not perform as brilliantly as it did last time in the tribal belt,8217;8217; sources say.

At the same time the BJD8217;s base in the coastal belt lies eroded as the party has driven out a number of key leaders from this region, mostly on corruption charges. These leaders like Nalinikanta Mahanty, Srikanta Jena and Bijoy Mahapatra, are said to have a fair amount of clout among the electorate. 8216;8216;Much of the old Biju bastion in coastal Orissa is disintegrating,8217;8217; said a BJD leader, 8216;8216;and reverses in fortune is not ruled out.8217;8217;

In the final analysis, the BJD-BJP combine is expected to hold on to the power but not before taking a severe battering. The coalition8217;s hope for retrieving much of the lost ground probably rests in a 8216;Shining India8217; supercyclone sweeping the state before the polls.