Manmohan146;s big headaches

None of these could have come as a surprise to an intelligent man 8212; which Manmohan Singh undoubtedly is 8212; but even he might have hoped better of his own party and the powers above. There are three problems he needs to tackle on a war-footing while the parliamentary recess offers him a little breathing space. Two are man-made, the third lies with the gods.

To begin with the last named, the monsoon crisis has returned to haunt yet another prime minister. As an economist, Manmohan Singh knows that his budget proposals cannot stand the twin fury of floods in eastern India and drought elsewhere. I would not be surprised if the rate of inflation crosses crosses 7 per cent as early as December. Civil servants swear that no prime minister in recent memory has followed the course of the monsoon quite as obsessively as Manmohan Singh, not even in 1987 or in 2002; daily updates, it seems, cross the prime minister8217;s desk. But Indra is not to be commanded even by the current occupant of the Indraprastha simhasan.

It is another matter, however, when it comes to the Congress party itself. Yet two Congress chief ministers have taken unilateral decisions which threaten to rip the country apart. In Hyderabad, Rajasekhara Reddy has opened the Pandora8217;s box of reservation for religious minorities an issue that was a direct precursor to Partition; in Chandigarh, Amarinder Singh has essentially challenged the very nature of federalism by revoking a water-sharing treaty.

Readers may recall an advertisement that appeared under Captain Amarinder Singh8217;s signature two weeks this day. Titled 8216;Facts Sharing With Nation8217;, it referred to the 8220;State of Punjab8221; as a 8220;sovereign legislative authority8221;, a claim that evokes profound disquiet. The claim of 8220;sovereignty8221; is one that should not be lightly made as it is an explicit claim of independence. India is a sovereign nation, as are Pakistan, the United States, China, the United Kingdom, and so on. But when did Punjab win that status?

I have a great deal of sympathy for Punjab8217;s irritation. It is much as if Kerala 8212; another state which supposedly has a surplus of water 8212; were asked to divert its rivers for the benefit of thirsty Tamil Nadu. Don8217;t laugh; according to the late E.M.S. Namboodaripad, precisely such a claim was put forward in his historic first term as chief minister. But the issue becomes far graver when any state within the Indian Union claims 8216;sovereign8217; status.

Forget the Sutlej waters, one must wonder how far Amarinder Singh proposes to take his concept of sovereignty. Does Punjab, for instance, now possess the power to abrogate the Fundamental Rights? Why not, since that too cannot be denied to a 8220;sovereign8221; power? Amarinder Singh took an oath to uphold the Constitution, both when he became an officer in the Indian army and as chief minister; with his claim to 8220;sovereignty8221; he is twice foresworn.

The same oath of office also binds the prime minister. It remains to be seen which tie of loyalty holds greater power on Manmohan Singh8217;s heart: that to the Constitution or that to his party.

The prime minister will find no respite when he turns his gaze to the south, where Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Rajasekhara Reddy has chosen to grant reservations to Muslims. The Andhra Pradesh High Court has struck it down but the undaunted chief minister is already preparing a fresh piece of legislation.

Nations ignore their history at their peril. In 1928, in response to the Simon Commission, the Congress appointed the Motilal Nehru Committee to write a draft Constitution. Among other things it accepted the principle of communal representation. This opened the doors for M.A. Jinnah who raised the bar by demanding one-third of the seats in the Central Legislature as the first of his infamous 8216;Fourteen Points8217;. Point three, in a move that should delight the chief minister of Punjab, demanded that residuary powers be vested with the Provinces. The Congress promised 8220;full satisfaction to the parties concerned8221;, effectively giving a veto to the most intransigent. Small wonder that the Constituent Assembly specifically rejected communal representation. Rajasekhara Reddy has now reopened the door to competitive populism.

Manmohan Singh understands the implications of Rajasekhara Reddy8217;s and Amarinder Singh8217;s actions, but he is helpless as long as the Congress remains divided. The Congress High Command has been eloquent in its silence, leaving it to provincial satraps to set national policy. And while Sonia Gandhi dithers, the moral authority of the prime minister continues to be eroded.

The Indian economy is resilient enough to withstand a bad monsoon. And all may not be lost anyway. But how long will the Union of India stand if hasty actions by chief ministers lacking a national perspective continue to be unchallenged?