Mamata146;s waiting for the main chance

Come September 25, and Mamata Banerjee will observe the first anniversary of her Singur agitation. Last September, on this very date...

Come September 25, and Mamata Banerjee will observe the first anniversary of her Singur agitation. Last September, on this very date, she had launched her campaign against the 8220;forcible8221; acquisition of agricultural land in Singur with an impromptu demonstration and blockade of the local block development office. After several futile attempts to get her to withdraw, the administration called in the police. The massive lathi-charge that followed marked the beginning of Mamata8217;s comeback trail, after her political meltdown in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls.

Singur has been a complex story and needs to be read right. On the one hand, it has given birth to a vibrant and to some extent virulent movement against the acquisition of agricultural land for industry. It was the Singur spark that ignited the Nandigram fire, which in turn forced the government to retrace its steps of setting up a SEZ there. Mamata clung to the issue of land desperately even though she came across to industry captains as someone who was anti-growth. She perceived that land was the only issue which could put the Left on the back foot. At the same time, Singur is also emerging as the most visible symbol of the state8217;s industrial revival. As factory-sheds sprout in what were once empty green spaces, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee8217;s industrial thrust becomes more vivid and real. Should the Tata small car roll out of the plant by next year 8212; and there8217;s no reason why it should not 8212; Bhattacharjee8217;s position will be safer than ever before.

It is the intervening period that promises to be full of action punctuated with behind-the-scene parleys, new alliances, and failing alliances. The past year has been particularly significant for Mamata Banerjee. Those watching her closely will probably also acknowledge a perceptible change in her bearing. She is far less impulsive now, and more restrained in her temperament. The haggard, tattered look of yore has also gone. Now she can often be spotted holding a cell phone in her clenched fists at public rallies. At times, there is even a sling bag adorning her shoulder. As for the old fire, it has now given way to a new cunning.

So on July 8, 2007, while returning from Delhi, she drove straight to Indira Bhavan in Salt Lake, to wish the CPM patriarch, Jyoti Basu, who was celebrating his 93rd birthday. With a bouquet in her hand, she touched Basu8217;s feet, delighting the old man. He told her that he was 8220;so happy8221; that she had come even though he left almost immediately for a meeting. The message was clear: the new Mamata was willing to go to any length to dislodge Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee.

All said and done, it has been a year of experimentation for her. She has openly and successfully courted fringe political outfits like various Naxalite groups who have come to hold sway in isolated pockets. In fact many of her admirers now are old, die-hard communists and intellectuals disillusioned over Buddha8217;s robust pro-industry agenda. During her 25-day fast unto death over Singur, Naxal activists gave her round-the-clock company and encouragement.

But her biggest shot in the arm has been the latest stand-off between the Congress and the CPM over the nuclear deal. In numerous parleys with the central Congress leadership, Mamata reminded them of her consistent argument: the CPM can never be trusted. Even as the fissures within the UPA get deeper, a restive

Mamata looks genuinely interested in forging an alliance with the Congress before a possible snap mid-term poll. Between the two sides it is a unique situation with Congress urging Mamata to dump the NDA first, and Mamata urging the Congress leadership to dump the CPM if it wanted to go for the polls in alliance with the TMC.

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If nothing else, Mamata has earned a credibility for being the most durable and uncompromising of communist-haters. As long as the agenda is to dislodge the communists, she is game for any alliance and may even be ready to part ways with the NDA. She had been maintaining a studied distance from the BJP over the past one year with an eye to the Muslim vote. And Muslims, remember, comprise 25 per cent of Bengal8217;s vote share. In her party8217;s assessment as well as that of independent political circles, a snap poll with a TMC-Congress combine should reduce the CPM8217;s number of seats more than it did in 1984, when the Congress won 16 seats after the sympathy wave caused by the assassination of Indira Gandhi. Mamata8217;s optimism might not be unfounded, but the way ahead is rife with uncertainty.