
Even before the echoes of Nawaz Sharif8217;s words at the United Nations have faded, his military commanders have stepped up tension on the Jammu and Kashmir border. If Pakistan8217;s Prime Minister meant what he said when he urged more joint efforts by India and Pakistan to ensure peace and stability in the region, he really ought to pay closer attention to what is happening in the Kargil sector. Since last April Pakistani troops have made what look like determined attempts to provoke India. The latest provocation consisted of firing on Kargil town which resulted in a large number of civilian deaths and damage to a mosque and hospital. What tactical military objective is served by such insensate violence is difficult to see. If the intention is to disrupt Indian Army supply lines, Pakistani commanders grossly underestimate their adversary8217;s capabilities. As for using mayhem in Kargil as a cover for massing a large body of infiltrators and transferring them across the border, such a plan ignores the certainty of a very hostile reception from the people targeted by Pakistani guns and the fact that Indian authorities are well prepared to deal with these kinds of incursions.
Looking for a political motive proves more fruitful. In light of there being no justification of any kind for the escalation of firing from across the border in August and Tuesday8217;s incident which was even more reckless because civilians were targeted, the strong assumption must be that some sections of Pakistan8217;s military establishment are not in favour of the thaw in Indo-Pak relations. Raising the stakes on the border by provoking strong Indian Army retaliation would be calculated to arouse popular sentiment in both countries and set back the tentative Indo-Pak dialogue. In this respect, these elements in Pakistan would be at odds with the political leadership which has indicated its willingness to stay on course.