Lesson for Gujarat victor: Shun confrontation

Unless a miracle happens-and miracles do take place in elections-Narendra Modi will be back as Gujarat8217;s chief minister after the people8217;s verdict is known next Sunday.

Unless a miracle happens 8212; and miracles do take place in elections 8212; Narendra Modi will be back as Gujarat8217;s chief minister after the people8217;s verdict is known next Sunday. To the many factors favouring a BJP victory, the Congress has added one more during the election campaign: it has transformed a state Assembly poll into a Narendra Modi vs. Sonia Gandhi contest. She was ill-advised to introduce that highly provocative pitch to her party8217;s attack on Modi, which could have had only one effect: forcing the BJP8217;s traditional support base to overcome its internal dissensions and work for the party8217;s victory.

The Congress president was ably assisted in this by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who has strangely emerged as the Congress party8217;s No 2 poll campaigner. That he is not cut out for this job was evident when he exposed his political naiuml;vete by making remarks that either helped the chief minister to counterattack 8220;We8217;ll reopen the riot cases8221; or conceded Modi8217;s victory 8220;BJP has made Advani its prime ministerial candidate because it fears Modi8221;. Incredibly, he even charged that an atmosphere of fear and terror prevails in Gujarat. It prompted me to take a magnifying glass to read the newspapers all over again to see if, during the first phase of polling on December 11, there was a single case of booth-capturing, rigging, poll violence, or coercive attempts to stop Muslims or any other section of the population from coming to the polling booth. I couldn8217;t see any. I also cross-checked from various sources: How many terrorist incidents had occurred in Gujarat in the past five years? Practically none.

There is no need to fast-forward the analysis of elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. There will be plenty of it after December 23. However, two things can be said with certainty. Firstly, the train of political developments will not be running on a slow track after India enters 2008. It will, of course, run superfast, causing derailment of the UPA government, if the prime minister chooses to defy Comrade Karat8217;s December-end ultimatum on the Indo-US nuclear deal. On the other hand, if he heeds Karat8217;s threat and decides to jettison the deal in order to prolong the life of his government 8212; which is a distinct possibility 8212; he will remain a prime minister with near-zero credibility and authority.

Secondly, the viciously confrontationist campaign in Gujarat has made a lot of people on both sides of the political divide worry about the shape of things to come in the parliamentary elections. Should an electoral contest be reduced simply to attacks and counter-attacks? Shouldn8217;t there be moderation and reasoned debates in the campaign? And should the media highlight only aggression and high-decibel diatribe? Doesn8217;t it force campaigners to think that they should speak only such things, and in such a combative manner, as will be picked up by TV cameras? Is the cult of personality, be it in the Congress or BJP, good for the development of a healthy and robust democracy?

It is high time the two national parties realised that they have a duty to promote a mature political culture in India, one in which elections remain competitive but don8217;t become confrontational. Both BJP and Congress invoked the name of Mahatma Gandhi in their election campaign. They should remember that one of the pillars of the Gandhian philosophy is sahakar cooperation. If they are sincere about their commitment to Gandhiji8217;s ideals, they should display at least a modicum of mutual cooperation once the heat and noise of the elections are over.

Although the BJP is less guilty of vilifying its adversary, it should strive more to change the prevailing political climate. A victory in Gujarat should neither make it overconfident nor tempt it to think that what works for it in Gujarat will do so in the rest of India. Fortunately, there is no socially divisive issue or atmosphere in the country today. The BJP leadership should take advantage of this situation to broaden its appeal, and, in particular, reach out to the Muslim community, without losing its traditional support base. Sonia Gandhi8217;s 8216;maut ke saudagar8217; invective against Modi might have been hurled with an eye on Muslim votes in other states, but enlightened minds within the Muslim community know that applauding this attack is not the best way of healing the wounds of the past.

A sincere and credible assurance by the BJP to address the legitimate concerns of the Muslim community would, far from being an act of appeasement, help the party politically. This strategy may not bring a lot of Muslim votes for the BJP, but it would certainly enlarge the acceptability of its leadership, and help expand and strengthen the NDA. If, in addition, the BJP sharpens its focus on state-specific issues, and champions the agenda of good governance and pro-poor development, 2008 could well see the BJP emerge as a strong contender for power at the Centre.