Laptop Naidu may be logged off, Krishna stays online

The poll projects 110-120 seats for the Congress in the 224-strong House, 60-70 seats for the BJP and 25-35 seats for H D Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular).

It is quite rare to see such significant vote-splitting in India in simultaneous elections to the Lok Sabha and the Vidhan Sabha. So, while Karnataka voters seem to favour the BJP for the Lok Sabha elections, they appear to be backing Krishna for the Vidhan Sabha.

Deve Gowda’s JD-S seems to be playing a more dominant role in the Vidhan Sabha and the voting figures from the polls suggest that the JD-S has hit the BJP harder than the Congress.

So, finally, Krishna may have his fellow Vokkaliga Deve Gowda to thank for giving him another five years in the Vidhan Sabha. Another factor that could explain the Congress’s good showing in the Vidhan Sabha polls is the absence of a strong BJP leader to match the acceptability of Krishna.

In Andhra Pradesh, the poll results suggest that the 9-year run of TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu may come to an end and there could be a Congress-TRS government in Hyderabad. The Congress and its allies are likely to get 140-160 seats in the 294-member Assembly while the ruling TDP will be left with 120-140.

The exit poll indicates a significant swing away from the TDP-BJP alliance in Phase I, which primarily covered Telengana. The entry of the TRS on the Telengana platform appears to have had a major impact on the fortunes of the TDP-BJP combine.

But findings of the opinion poll for the Phase II seats, which are in Coastal Andhra and Rayalseema (and which go to the polls on April 26), indicate that the swing against the TDP-BJP alliance is much lower than that in Phase I.

However, this opinion poll in Coastal Andhra and Rayalseema was held 2-3 weeks before the voting date and these results could change by the time the voters go to the polls on April 26.

In Orissa, Naveen Patnaik is all set to be back with his BJD, along with its ally BJP, and may get anywhere between 40 and 100 seats in the 147-member House. The Congress will be left with 30-40.

The BJD-BJP alliance held such a large lead in terms of votes in 1999 that it would have required a very large swing before a significant number of seats were shifted to the Congress.

While there are indications of a swing away from the BJD-BJP combine, the swing is not enough to overwhelm the large majority of the incumbent government.

It is probable that Patnaik, with his allies, will control around two-thirds of the seats in the Vidhan Sabha.

METHODOLOGY: The Indian Express and New Delhi Television (NDTV) have jointly commissioned A C Nielsen, a leading market research agency, to conduct fieldwork for a series of opinion and exit polls to gauge the voting intentions of the electorate as well to seek their views on a range of subjects and personalities. The exit polls will be conducted in four phases—to correspond with the four phases of the elections.

Each of the three Vidhan Sabhas votes in two phases. The projections for Phase 1 are based on exit polls, while those for Phase 2 are computed from the results of the opinion polls.

But some words of caution. All polls—opinion and exit—are subject to margins of error. The sampling error in this poll ranges across states, with the highest range of error not exceeding 3.

In the opinion poll, a total of 164 assembly constituencies were covered, while in the exit poll, 42 assembly constituencies were polled.