Kosovo is quite a test

But to actually deter Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic from cracking down on Kosovo, the province adjacent to Albania with a population of two million, 90 percent of whom are ethnic Albanians, may require not a simple show of air power but actual use of it. After all 250 ethnic Albanians have already been killed and tens of thousands forced out as refugees to Albania.

The 80 NATO warplanes that flew over Serbianpositions as a warning were, according to reports from Belgrade, seen by Milosevic supporters as just that: a show. 8220;Americans have been telling us for quite some time that they will get angry with us: now they are saying they will get very angry with us.8221;

To stop Milosevic from proceeding with his ethnic cleansing project, NATO, led by the United States, would actually have to bomb Serbian positions and possibly commit ground troops.

This Russian President Boris Yeltsin cannot allow. Fellow Slavs pulverised by NATO air power would give his right-wing ultranationalists an emotive platform. Yeltsin is politically weak. The rouble has taken a tumble. He needs western help. At this juncture for him to acquiesce in western bombing of fellow Slavs would give the ultranationalists a powerful handle.

Britain is running around with a draft resolution for the Security Council to sanction the use of force. This is bound to be vetoed by Russia. Meanwhile, the spillover of refugees into Albania and Macedonia willwiden the conflict. After all Macedonia consists 75 percent of Slavs and 25 percent of Albanians a perfect recipe for an internal explosion.This is not all. Neighbouring Greece, a NATO member, has a serious problem with the name Macedonia. The name smacks of Hellenistic heritage. How can it be an independent country?

This Greek sentiment has been exploited by arch-enemy and another NATO member Turkey. Some time ago Turkish diplomats were inviting journalists to Skopje to embarrass the Greeks.

As it is, Europe8217;s flat refusal to entertain the Turkish application for membership of the Union has insulted and weakened Westward-looking Kemalists secularists in Turkey. Even though the Islamist Refah party has been banned by the army-controlled states apparatus, political Islam grows. To rub salt in Turkish wounds, Europe favours association with Greek Cypriots to the exclusion of Turkish Cypriots in the north of the island. The prospect of Russian missiles in the Greek part of Cyprus makes the situation thatmuch more volatile.

What complicates matters still more is Kosovo8217;s place in Serbian mythology it is the place where Serbs defeated the Ottomans centuries ago. By that very token, Kosovo has an echo in Turkish historical memory as well.

The collapse of the Soviet Union gave extraordinary vigour to the Orthodox Church. In spite of differences within the various Orthodox churches, in a broad sense the Russian, Greek, Cypriot and Macedonian Orthodox churches move in concert. Those are exactly the linkages that will be activated should NATO bomb Serb positions.

Bomb the Serbs and the Orthodox is agitated. Be lenient and Milosevic will do in Kosovo what he did in Bosnia. The Muslim world will then be up in arms.This latter prospect worries the Americans even more because the absence of any progress in the Middle East Peace process has caused them to lose face before the Arab gallery.

Earlier this year the United States tried to recreate a coalition to attack Iraq which, according to United Nations SpecialCommission chairman Richard Butler, was not co-operating with the arms inspectors. The coalition did not materialise. Not only did Russia and France refuse to fall in line, even some of the habitually pro-West Arab regimes did no oblige. On the contrary, eight countries, including the Arabs, sought special waivers from the UN sanctions regime to despatch planeloads of humanitarian aid to Baghdad. In the end only Britain, Canada, New Zealand and Austria gave verbal support to the American lead.

This was not the first diplomatic debacle. The Doha economic summit sponsored by the United States was boycotted even by countries like Egypt. In the end Secretary of State Madeleine Albright addressed a near-empty hall.

Why? The Arab regimes were losing face because Washington was simply unable to push the Netanyahu government in Jerusalem towards any accommodation in the Middle East peace process.

The media is giving the impression that the peace process is static because the Palestinians are demanding Israeliwithdrawal from 13 percent of the territory still under Israeli occupation and that Netanyahu is willing to withdraw only from nine percent of the land.

The truth lies elsewhere. The Palestinians too have seen how American power is circumscribed. Meanwhile they have seen an Arab sentiment emerge on 8220;the people of Iraq and the Palestinians8221;. Palestinian negotiators would like to know what progress is possible on a port and an airport for Gaza and, of course, how do they travel from Gaza to the West Bank cities under the Palestinian authority.

And what is to become of the final status for Jerusalem? Europe has its own anxieties. It did not want a Muslim Bosnia in Europe; it does not want a Muslim Kosovo which could well be in prospect if Milosevic8217;s strong-arm methods further strengthen the already strong Kosovo Liberation Army.

Moreover, six million Turks, Algerians and Pakistanis in Germany, France and Britain are exposed to the dangers of being radicalised.

It is a huge dilemma. Kosovo is no smallmatter.