Kathmandu is waiting

Kathmandu wears a festive look. The promised 8216;republic8217; is at its doorstep. But the fears far outstrip the euphoria.

Kathmandu wears a festive look. The promised 8216;republic8217; is at its doorstep. But the fears far outstrip the euphoria. The first meeting of the constituent assembly scheduled for today, May 28, will be held without a government in place. The three major parties 8212; Nepali Congress, Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist CPN-UML and the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists CPN-M 8212; have failed to reach an understanding on the formation of the new government and power-sharing.

The CPN-M has already decided that its role will not be confined to being an opposition party in case it8217;s denied a chance to form the government. That means fresh agitation that may not be entirely peaceful, aimed at 8216;capturing8217; power. This poses the gravest ever threat to the peace process that brought the Maoists into mainstream politics since April 2006. Of course, a fractured mandate denied the country a chance to have a government mandated by the people. But more than that, it was the political ambition of G.P. Koirala to stick to power at any cost and the Maoists8217; refusal, even at this stage, to declare that they have given up the politics of violence.

As acting head of state, G.P. Koirala has asked the CPN-M chief, Prachanda, to explore the possibility of forming the government as he heads the single largest party with 220 members in a House of 601. But Prachanda has not got down to securing support from other parties on the basis of a common agreed formula. Koirala has been silently using the prevailing uncertainty to continue in power without facing parliament. His argument is simple: the absence of a two-third majority in favour of Prachanda or anyone is license for him to continue.

Although the new constituent assembly is under a directive to 8216;abolish monarchy8217; by its first meeting, there are uncertainties about how alternative arrangements can be made to replace an institution that has been at the helm of the state8217;s affairs and has been solely conducting and guiding Nepal8217;s external relationships?

In the midst of all this, King Gyanendra is believed to have informally conveyed to different actors 8212; both national and international 8212; that he is more worried about Nepal8217;s independence, sovereignty and stability than his own status. The message comes at a time when prominent Nepali leaders have begun speaking out against the 8216;meddling8217; of foreigners on issues that fall entirely in the 8216;domestic domain8217;. This issue is also being debated in political parties, mainly the CPN-M.

According to prominent Maoist leaders, while they are willing to work with 8216;international actors8217; for consolidation of democracy, they will not want their interference in domestic issues. The top brass of the party has been debating the possible causes behind India8217;s taking sides with the CPN-M to the extent that Ambassador Rakesh Sood and Shyam Saran have publicly stated that the Maoists must head the new government. The Maoists fear that this patronage to a party that has long professed an anti-US and anti-Indian line will be suicidal in the long run. But they also realise that they need to be in India8217;s good books to run the government.

As the debate continues in the party, a powerful section of the party also suspects that the CPN-M8217;s top ideologue, Baburam Bhattarai, is pursuing a pro-India line. The suspicion was so deep that Bhattarai8217;s secretary wrote a piece in a newspaper recently saying that Bhattarai has been an asset for the Maoist movement and to call him pro-India will be unfair. Prachanda8217;s leadership, his lifestyle and alleged emergence of the powerful coterie around him is also sowing seeds of a possible crisis in the party.

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For the moment, the lack of consensus among political parties might lead to frustration and political uncertainty for which the political parties alone, and not the king, will be held responsible.

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