J-virus in the air

In the karmic cycle of coalitional politics, distinctions between the past, present and future can sometimes be obliterated. Prime Minister Vajpayee must surely have a niggling feeling in his bones that the J-virus is once again in the air and could strike at any moment. Two years ago, almost to the day, he had rushed his emissary, George Fernandes, with a bouquet of flowers, to placate the princess of Poes Garden, Jayalalitha Jairam, general secretary of the AIADMK. Within a short span of two months, the 18 MPs of the AIADMK had withdrawn their support to the NDA government and it had promptly collapsed. The withdrawal of the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) from the ruling coalition does not, of course, pose a similar danger — at least for the moment — but it cannot but cause disquiet in the corridors of power despite the protestations of BJP spokespersons to the contrary.

It is cold comfort to know that the PMK president, S. Ramadoss, holds A.B. Vajpayee in the highest esteem and that it may even extend support to the NDA if it finds itself in a life-threatening situation. Ultimately, it’s the compulsions of regional politics that dictate the script here, make no mistake, not drawing room courtesies. The PMK has made its calculations and has decided that it prefers “sister Jayalalitha who wishes to be our friend” to “big brother Karunanidhi who seeks to destroy us”. There’s a sub-text to these bitter-sweet observations: the battle for the Vanniyar vote. The PMK has long viewed the presence of Vanniyar leader V. Ramamurthy of the Tamizhga Rajiv Congress in the DMK coalition as a threat to his own political base. Jayalalitha — herself in a battle for political survival and bothered only about her own influence in southern Tamil Nadu, especially among the Thevars — seized the main chance and made Ramadoss an offer he could not refuse: a sizeable number of seats innorthern Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry. The fact that their natural political constituencies do not overlap has naturally expedited this process of political realignment.

There are portents in these developments that the Vajpayee government would be wise to take note of. Coalitions are only as good as the regional parties they are comprised of. And, as the assembly elections inexorably draw near, it will be local rather than national compulsions that will dominate the political space. The departure of five PMK members from the BJP-led coalition do not in itself pose a crisis but their absence loosens the edifice and leaves the ruling front even more at the mercy of its other partners, some of whom are not by any means easy customers to handle. Take the Trinamool Congress leader with her eight MPs. With elections in West Bengal also looming large, it will only be a matter of time before Didi weighs her options and makes her demands. Traversing the coalitional minefield in the days to come will, therefore, require great political skills. Skills of anticipation, of navigation and even that of brinkmanship.