It’s gossip time in the Congress

This absence of access would be a negligible fact in normal times. But in the election season it stands out in bold relief. If Sonia Gandhi had a bevy of close advisers with a grasp of policy, strategy, the gameplan, the media would willingly fall back on this group to be able to report, particularly in the context of the coming elections, what the nation’s oldest political party was upto. But around Sonia Gandhi are a handful of men and women who are probably not very sure of their own standing with the leader — anything they say may be cited as evidence against them.

In the absence of authorised information, gossip flourishes. Priyanka and Rahul have made a joint appearance in Amethi because both of them will now be formally launched. No, no, says the most informed Congressman. ‘‘First Priyanka will be inducted as the president of the Youth Congress and then the script will open up’’. Rubbish, says the next Congressman, Rajiv Gandhi was keen on fielding Priyanka. Sonia would like Rahul to inherit the Congress mantle. And so the gossip proceeds endlessly.

Moreover, this Priyanka-Rahul speculation seems to obscure the security concerns which were once so profound with Sonia that she had even agreed to send her children to Moscow in the late 80s. Gorbachev, no less, had made the promise to the late ambassador T.N. Kaul that he would ensure their safety. That was in the aftermath of Operation Blue Star. A completely new situation exists on the ground in Punjab. There is every reason why Sonia Gandhi should allow her children to test the political waters. But will she?

Meanwhile, the political scene gets more complex by the minute. What is emerging is an electoral combat in two stages. First, within the states. This is likely to yield a bewildering variety of options. For example in West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura, Left Front and the Congress will lock horns. But after the elections they will join hands to confront the NDA. Ram Vilas Paswan is working to keep the RJD, Congress combination in play in Bihar again against the NDA. This combination will stand firm. This is quite different from the Congress-DMK seat adjustment in Tamil Nadu where Karunanidhi will play his independent hand after the poll. The gameplans vary from state to state. A great deal of focus will be on Mulayam Singh Yadav and Sharad Pawar. When BJP leaders suggest that the two are ‘‘an insurance for the NDA’’ the leaks are only designed to weaken both.

In any case, Kalyan Singh’s return to the BJP fold diminishes Mulayam Singh Yadav’s capacity for continued ambiguity between Congress and the BJP. The restraint with which BJP has handled Mulayam cannot be expected to be Kalyan Singh’s style. He will fire his salvos with retaliation from the Samajwadi Party. This open hostility with the BJP will enable Mulayam to keep some of his Muslim votebank.

But after the elections, the equation may change. And why not? After all, if the Left Front and Congress can fight in three states and join hands after the vote is cast, surely Mulayam’s behaviour in the election need not determine his post poll strategies. A Congress dominated government at the Centre undermines him in Lucknow and this he must block. Is there, therefore, a certain inevitability about his playing ball with the BJP-led NDA? Should his politics take this direction, what happens to his arithmetic in UP where he still depends on Muslim votes? He has to fight elections in the future too. This is where Vajpayee’s politics of national harmony insulates Mulayam from too shrill a Muslim condemnation for ganging up with the NDA. But Mulayam’s room for manoeuvre gets restricted with Mayawati likewise playing a game of open ambiguity.

Some of this general ambiguity towards the Congress would diminish if there was some clarity in the Congress. Yes, Sonia Gandhi has indicated that a future coalition will elect its own leader. But gossip in the Congress corridor is that they will abide by her as the candidate for prime minister.

This means contention after the polls. In the fast paced post-poll dribble there will be no time for debate, haggling. While Sonia Gandhi makes up her mind the other side will score the goal. That, sadly, is the outcome many people believe Sonia Gandhi wants — somehow remain leader of opposition.

To end this line of speculation and terminate gossip, please open up that lock on your office door and become more accessible.