Is the peace process now terror-proof?

By unintended coincidence, these tragic incidents provide the urgency for South Asian leaders and civil society to introspect over what is easily the most serious security challenge confronting them, and the current Indo-Pak deliberations will hopefully provide the template for the Saarc summit of early April. The abiding Indian concern about terrorism and the support it receives from within state structures and the more radicalised elements of civil society in Pakistan, is at the heart of the January 2004 agreement arrived at between India and Pakistan.

The Panipat incident has serious implications for India, since it proves the virulent efficacy with which terrorist groups are able to strike well outside the geographic footprint of the troubled J038;K region. Forensic and police investigations when completed will give us a better idea about the identity of the perpetrators but there can be no doubt about the unmistakable signature of the elusive terrorist group behind the incident. Passenger trains have in recent years become the preferred target of terrorist attacks, and this has been irrefutably established in the Madrid-London-Mumbai and now Panipat linkage. The case for more stringent security procedures at railway stations was more than evident after the Mumbai blasts of July and the fact that the security of the high-profile Samjhauta Express could be breached in Delhi points once again to the lacunae in India8217;s ability to evolve an effective counter-terrorism intelligence strategy.

The Panipat tragedy was clearly engineered by extremist groups who are sworn to the path of deliberate killing of innocents and whether their immediate objective was to muddy the Indo-Pak dialogue process, sow communal discord or realise a more intangible supra-national messianic objective is a matter of conjecture. But here the Quetta tragedy is instructive. In recent weeks Pakistan has been grappling with a series of suicide attacks and this corresponds with the pattern in Afghanistan.

Notwithstanding the strict Islamic injunction against suicide per se, a distortion of religious tenets by extremist clerics has accorded the suicide-bomber a halo in the increasingly turbulent Pak-Afghan region and Quetta is the most recent manifestation of this. While it is true the Pakistani military establishment had at one time nurtured these forces of religious extremism, if left unchecked, the possibility that this fervour will spread to other parts of South Asia cannot be discounted. It is ironic that Pakistan 8212; which had at one time sought to increase its influence in Afghanistan to gain 8216;strategic depth8217; 8212; has now become the victim of reverse strategic osmosis emanating from within the obscurantist Taliban syndrome.

In a perceptive editorial comment, the Daily Times, Lahore, noted: 8220;Suicide-bombing is rife in Pakistan. It is experienced in all cities and has now happened repeatedly in Islamabad too. There is an increased incidence of suicide-bombing in Afghanistan and most of the bombers are of the same ilk as the ones now bombing Pakistan. But the fact is that all the 8216;persuaders8217; of suicide are sitting in Pakistan. The disease that we helped spread has turned around and attacked us.8221;

Pakistan is currently in the throes of complex internal changes which are also being stoked by external events, ranging from the Palestine issue to Shia-Sunni strife in Iraq. In this medley, General Musharraf8217;s decision to continue as Pakistan8217;s president and army chief till 2012 will only add to the churning. Managing Pakistan8217;s multiple challenges calls for a firm tactical response and a perspicacious, long-term strategic approach. India will have to prudently calibrate its responses to the dynamic situation in its neighbourhood so as to effectively quarantine the Panipat-Quetta virulence.

The writer is a security analyst