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Journalism of Courage
Is it a measure of his efficiency in clearing files or of his ministerial under-employment that Union Disinvestment Minister Arun Shourie has more books than files on his table? And why not? Consider the reading material he is wading through. Shourie may well have built up the best collection of books on China. Working on his General Cariappa Memorial Lecture, to be delivered later this year, Shourie is poring over every research paper and book he can find on analysing China, its economic performance and strategic potential. He has his priorities right. Unless India understands the nature of the challenge China poses and is likely to pose, it is impossible to get a grip on the challenge of development and governance at hand.
At a time when many of his ministerial colleagues are busy dispensing petrol pumps and other favours, grabbing land, abusing minorities or promoting obscurantism, Shourie is devouring page after page of analysis on Chinese power. Among the many books and reports, the more fascinating study is the voluminous tome entitled China Debates The Future Security Environment by Michael Pillsbury National Defence University Press, Wash DC, 2000. Available on the NDU website.
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A society increasingly divided along communal and social lines is viewed as internally weak and, therefore, incapable of being externally strong |
While there is recognition of the fact that the US is today the world8217;s only super-power, it is viewed by many Chinese scholars as a 8216;8216;declining power8217;8217;. The world is moving towards a multi-polar structure in which the US, Europe, Japan, Russia and China will be the five great poles of power. India does not figure in the Chinese calculus as a Great Power to reckon with. India is viewed as a 8216;8216;military power8217;8217; in South Asia, with a presence in the Indian Ocean region exceeding China8217;s. If there is any area where India is seen as being ahead of China it is in its naval and air power. But this, in the Chinese view, counts for little since India8217;s 8216;8216;Comprehensive National Power CNP8217;8217; is way behind China8217;s.
The analysts of power define CNP as a sum of military, economic, scientific, technological and political power. A China Academy of Military Sciences study quantifies CNP as a sum of eight variables. A total CNP score of 1.0 is a summation of a country8217;s natural resources 0.08, domestic economic capability 0.28, external economic capability 0.13, scientific and technological capability 0.15, social development level literacy, health and other human development indicators, 0.10, military capability 0.10, governmental capability as manifested in ability to regulate and control economic activity 0.08 and foreign affairs capability diplomatic influence and reach, 0.08.
The US has the highest CNP score and will continue to do so into the foreseeable future, but China sees its current rank at 5, behind US, Japan, Germany and Russia and improving to 2 by the first quarter of the century. India is placed at rank 13 from which it is not expected to move very much higher. Even as they acknowledge India8217;s superior military power in the Indian Ocean region and worry about Indian intentions in Tibet, Chinese scholars see India as a second rate economic power. Given that economic, political, social and governance capabilities are given more weightage than purely military capability, China believes that India8217;s nuclear power status will not really alter the balance of power in the region.
To quote Pillsbury, 8216;8216;China8217;s analysts write that India, as a smaller scale version of Japan, also has a militaristic, religion-based strategic culture, seeks to dominate its neighbours, has had covert nuclear ambitions for two decades prior to its nuclear tests in 1998, attempts to foment conflict between China and other nations, and has some areas of military superiority over China, such as its current navy. However, India8217;s economic reforms are judged insufficient to catch up with China and enter the multipolar world as the sixth pole. India8217;s CNP scores for 2010 place it no higher than number nine according to one study or thirteen according to another, only about half of China8217;s CNP score in 2010.8217;8217;
The scepticism of China8217;s analysts with respect to India8217;s CNP is not only based on doubts about economic reform but also the belief that India8217;s fractious polity will limit her economic and military potential. Interestingly, China8217;s Marxist-oriented scholars give low scores for India8217;s ability to reform the public sector, close down sick public sector enterprises and raise the resources required for development. Of course, this was written before Shourie took charge of privatisation!
Ironically, while many analysts express concern about rising religious nationalism in both Japan and India, and believe that the ascendance of the BJP will bolster India8217;s military strength, they also see religious chauvinism as a factor of weakness rather than strength. A society increasingly divided along communal and social lines is viewed as internally weak and, therefore, incapable of being externally strong.
This study must be made compulsory reading for all of India8217;s political parties. How many of our political leaders understand the long-term consequences of the short-term compromises they make? A corrupt, ineffective, parochial and bigoted political class can do far more damage to the nation and our CNP than any foreign enemy can ever hope to. Mercifully, these are neutralised to an extent by our democratic institutions, the upward social mobility they have enabled and the inherent secularism of the Indian people. If these strengths disappear, mere acceleration of economic growth is not going to do much for India8217;s national power.
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