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Eyes wide shutWhile touring UP in early September, it seemed very evident that the BJP was going to fare poorly in the state. But in Luck...

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Eyes wide shut

While touring UP in early September, it seemed very evident that the BJP was going to fare poorly in the state. But in Lucknow the local press corps, BJP leaders and even ironically some demoralised Congressmen were oblivious to the reality on the ground. 8220;You have got an incorrect picture because you have not gone off the main road8221;, 8220;You must have been talking to an unrepresentative sample8221;, were the normal counters.

Generally people tend to see what they want to see, even when the truth stares them in the face. In 1984 when it was clear to even a blind man that the Rajiv Gandhi wave was going to sweep Bombay, journalists with a pathological dislike for the Congress refused to be convinced even when every single taxi driver gave the identical political forecast. Taxi drivers, I was told, were not a representative sample of the city. In 1991 while driving from Agra to Kanpur the saffron surge was very evident, but my secular traveling companions, violently opposed to theHindutva forces, refused to accept the reality. The car was driven off the main road and we had a flat, all in the vain attempt to meet villagers whose views coincided with their own.

For Arun Nehru, who came fourth in Rae Bareilly, it is not just his career but his reputation as a political oracle which took a beating. It is one thing not to realise that you have been handed a lemon by the BJP, but to predict with supreme confidence that the BJP would win 56 seats in UP requires some explaining. But why blame amateur psephologists when the professionals got it equally wrong.

Gill-dekho-dekho

Counting day was Election Commissioner M.S. Gill8217;s hour of glory. He was the first guest on the TV morning talks shows where he spoke of 8220;my election8221;. One of the anchors, Karan Thapar, remarked that Gill would be a very busy man that day because of his onerous duties. In fact, Gill spent much of Wednesday not at Nirvachan Sadan but moving from one TV studio to the next including Star, DD1, DD2 and Zee. IfGill did not make a second appearance on DD on its 6 p.m.-7 p.m. slot as scheduled, it was not because of his heavy responsibilities but because he was upset by DD8217;s reporting on the court ruling on Madhepura.

OSD bows out

The affable Union Territory cadre IAS officer, Shakti Sinha, OSD to Prime Minister Vajpayee, will be leaving next month to take up his new assignment as an adviser in the World Bank. Sinha8217;s number two V. Anandrajan, an officer from the IRS will take over as OSD, though he is unlikely to be as visible as Sinha or wield the same influence.

Bad timing

Timing is the essence in politics and unfortunately for Congressmen Sonia Gandhi8217;s sense of timing is perverse. In December 1997, when Mamata Banerjee begged Sonia to take an active part in electoral politics, she turned her down and a frustrated Mamata quit the party in disgust. Just a week after she met Mamata, Sonia announced she would campaign for the Congress.

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If Sonia had taken up Jayalitha8217;s offer to topple theVajpayee government at the end of 1998 when food prices were high and BJP8217;s popularity at an all-time low or waited another year she might well have made it as India8217;s first foreign-born prime minister.

The Congress lost all 10 seats in Haryana by unnecessarily extending support to Bansi Lal, thus bearing the burden of Lal8217;s unpopularity which should have gone to his former ally, the BJP. Sonia8217;s alliance with Laloo Yadav was equally mistimed. If Sonia had not confronted Sharad Pawar with his disloyalty and forced him out of the party before the election and simply waited till after the polls were over, the elections might have thrown up very different numbers.

Sound and light

Thanks to the privatisation of its election programmes, DD spruced up its usually lack-lustre performance. A major advantage was first use of the government computer agency NICNET, which gave an edge over the competition in flashing early election trends, even if DD goofed once by announcing that Sonia Gandhi was trailingin Bellary. In contrast, the Star news channel which has a reputation for professionalism, had several technical glitches this time.

Competition during the results was not just between the desi channels, but also the foreign networks. CNN got permission to use Parliament House as a backdrop and footed a hefty bill for lighting up the building with halogen lamps. BBC happily used the ready-made background as well, until CNN got wise and started switching off the lights by 7 p.m. when its own feed from Delhi was over.

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