India will see highest rice output rise in next 10 yrs

India will register the highest increase in rice production the world over in the next 10 years, although its annual output will be less than that of China.

India will register the highest increase in rice production the world over in the next 10 years, although its annual output will be less than that of China. According to an analysis of worldwide rice production data compiled by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), India’s annual rice production would increase by 16.3 million tonnes by 2016, from 91 million tonnes currently. This is higher than any other rice producing country in the world.

In contrast, China would see its annual grain output decline by about 4.8 million tonnes in 2016, from 128 million tonnes in the 2006-07 production year. Still, China would retain its current status as the world’s biggest rice producer in 2016 and its annual output of 123.2 million tonnes would be higher than India’s 107.3 million tonnes. At present, India is the world’s second biggest rice producer after China and would continue to remain so.

According to the USDA’s International Agricultural Projections to 2016, India would be the only country to record a surge of over 10 million tonnes in this period. The second biggest increase of 2.9 million tonnes would be seen in Thailand, followed by a rise of 2.5 million tonnes in Vietnam.

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Meanwhile, China, Japan, South Korea and the European Union would see their annual output dip by 2016, according to the report. In percentage terms, India’s production would increase by 15 per cent, against a fall of about 3 per cent in China.

In terms of annual yield, defined as production per hectare, India would record a 13 per cent increase by 2016, against 5 per cent in China. However, the overall annual yield in India would remain below that of China. Currently, India’s annual yield stands at 2.06 tonnes per hectare against China’s 4.38 tonnes per hectare. In 2016, India’s rice yield would increase to 2.37 tonnes per hectare, while that of China would rise to 4.60 tonnes per hectare. The total acreage under production in India is double that of China, but total output in India is less due to lower yields.

India’s yield is lower than Pakistan and Bangladesh. In 2006-07, the annual yield in Bangladesh and Pakistan is estimated at 2.59 tonnes and 2.11 tonnes per hectare respectively. Egypt has the highest yield of 6.36 tonnes per hectare.