India in the hot seat

On global warming, India shouldn8217;t just bargain hard at international fora. It should start acting unilaterally

Among the many challenges facing India there is one that has had little policy related discussion. This is the impact of global warming. Some facts. Global warming is here, and there is a very high likelihood that this warming is due to human efforts towards improving their economic well-being. As per the IPCC there is a 90 per cent likelihood that a rise in 8216;greenhouse gases8217; that include carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, methane brought about the rise in global temperatures. And the recent UN Climate Change Talks held in Vienna have only highlighted that India its own viable, unilateral strategy rather than simply looking for better bargaining solutions in international negotiations.

All indications are that even if there was no increase in greenhouse emissions, India will be a much warmer country. The full impact of past emissions will play out in the next few years. Himalayan glaciers would be much smaller, river water levels would show larger variations, floods and droughts will both be more frequent, low lying land will disappear within the sea, and many other effects will be upon us. This is not a doomsday opinion piece 8212; this is going to happen.

Of course, if increases in greenhouse emissions continue at the current rate, these impacts will be much higher in scope and severity. As India and China continue to grow, their greenhouse gas emissions will accelerate. Rapidly expanding economies will impact the environment rapidly. And this impact will not be positive.

There are three aspects to environment policy. The first is how to deal with the warmer environment. The second, how to reduce potential environment damage. And the third, the need for unilateral action.

Of all the solutions available, some which will not require economic growth and some which will, each technological possibility will need to be backed by appropriate economic policy. And because many economic policies are under the state governments, we merely need a consensus on an appropriate direction that India should move towards.

If policy reform of the past is any indication, it takes about a decade for a national consensus to emerge and be translated into specific policy measures. The earlier we start with this process, the lower the costs that would need to be borne. And it is quite apparent that the changing environment will affect the underprivileged the most adversely.

So what do we need to do? And that is the strange part 8212; we have little clue! Perhaps reducing glacier size requires us to store water in the upper part of the Himalayas. Perhaps changing weather patterns requires a hardier set of hybrid seeds. Or perhaps we need a different approach to agriculture altogether. One that is less dependent upon energy intensive inputs such as fertilisers. Perhaps rising sea levels will require us to build Holland type dykes and dams that will allow farmers to farm on land lower than sea level. Or perhaps we will just need to ensure that farmers in delta systems are re-settled. In that case we should know that we will not be able to get them agricultural land so they will need to shift occupations.

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The infrastructure and agriculture sectors will be most sensitive to changed climatic patterns. Temperatures a few degrees higher or rains that shift by a couple of weeks could change the optimal crop to grow or seed to use. It could change the timing of steps in the crop production process. It could change animal husbandry practices. And it could change fishing practices as well.

Infrastructure is another important sector. Perhaps, roads in some parts will need to be made more robust to high precipitation, or perhaps irrigation requirements would be different. Urban infrastructure, it is quite apparent already, will need to be supplemented with better rainwater drainage. Rainwater storage systems, embankments, ponds and dams will perhaps become even more essential. An Indo-Nepal joint effort could become an even more important component of a common flood control system. The list is long, not infinite.

These are the first steps in the India warming story. The more serious problems of arresting the greenhouse effect will need to eventually become the centrepiece of the environmental-economy policy. There is much that needs to be done. We should start on this unilaterally rather than wait for the western countries to show the way. Let8217;s get talking.

The writer heads Indicus Analytics