If UK plot homegrown, it146;s bad news: experts

Intelligence and counterterrorism officials have said that the scale and sophistication of the scheme to blow up jets over the Atlantic could mean that al-Qaeda

Intelligence and counterterrorism officials have said that the scale and sophistication of the scheme to blow up jets over the Atlantic could mean that al-Qaeda, whose central command has been damaged since 2001, was again able to direct attacks.

But some specialists on the shifting networks of international terrorism said the alternative explanation8212;that homegrown British jihadists had managed to conceive a plot of such ambition8212;might hold even graver implications for the future. 8216;8216;The great problem is that al-Qaeda has moved far beyond being a terrorist organisation to being almost a state of mind,8217;8217; said Simon Reeve, author of a 1999 book on Osama bin Laden. 8216;8216;That8217;s terribly significant because it gives the movement a scope and longevity it didn8217;t have before 9/11.8217;8217;

Robert S. Mueller III, director of the FBI, said the scope and target of the plot were 8216;8216;suggestive of al-Qaeda direction and planning8217;8217;, and other officials said the plan reflected the terrorist network8217;s penchant for spectacular and simultaneous assaults.

Michael Sheehan, a former National Security Council official and the New York Police Department8217;s top counterterrorism official until May, said the hands-on training in explosives and trade craft that al-Qaeda could provide were what could 8216;8216;graduate a homegrown cell of people that are in the minor leagues to the major leagues of terrorism, as well as providing some strategic direction8217;8217;.

8220;The intention of al-Qaeda was to create a base for a long-term struggle,8221; said John O Brennan, former director of the National Counterterrosim Center. 8220;Its leaders are thinking in terms of the Crusades and a conflict that lasts for many, many years.8221;

A score of alleged terrorism-related prosecutions in the United States have been, as an FBI official said, 8220;aspirational, not operational8221;.

If the latest plot can be persuasively traced to bin Laden8217;s direction, rather than his inspiration, that would be an unwelcome surprise, Reeve said. 8216;8216;If it was authored by bin Laden using scribbled notes and carrier pigeons, that means he8217;s still capable of directing a major attack,8217;8217; he said. But if bin Laden was a bystander, Reeve said, 8216;8216;that could be worse news8217;8217;, suggesting 8216;8216;an absolute fragmentation of the terrorist threat8217;8217;.

SCOTT SHANE