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A party leader, however, acknowledges the Congress is in trouble in almost every state where it is fighting alone. ‘‘In Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan’’, a party insider says, ‘‘our assessment is that the results will reflect the recent Assembly elections (which the BJP won). In Uttaranchal, Assam and Punjab, where the party is ruling, it is tough.’’ In Orissa, too, ‘‘we face a chief minister with an incorruptible image’’.

The survey, the party says, gave it cause for cheer in essentially four states. One, Tamil Nadu — ‘‘The caste combination of the DMK-Congress-led front is better,’’ says a party leader. An internal BJP assessment, too, says it is not going to be a cakewalk for the AIADMK-led alliance.

Two, Maharashtra — ‘‘Our survey shows the BJP-Sena’s vote share has risen but the pre-poll alliance with the NCP should go in our favour,’’ says a Congress worker.

Three, Andhra Pradesh — ‘‘It is touch and go, but the alliance with the TRS in Telangana will help,’’ say sources.

Four, Karnakata — ‘‘We are holding here, though the BJP will make gains,’’ is how one of the Congress’ in-house psephologists puts it.

The big question mark, of course, is UP. While the Congress insists the survey shows ‘‘that a slow rebuilding of the party has started’’ in the state, it realises that this is only a euphemism for defeat.

The survey apparently shows ‘‘the NDA and Vajpayee as being particularly vulnerable among the poor and minorities’’. As a senior Congressman puts it, ‘‘In essence, the poorer you are the more likely you are to vote for the Congress.’’

Yet, the party’s manifesto, being drafted by a team led by Pranab Mukherjee, is expected to ‘‘shed its defensiveness on reforms’’. Far from presenting them as anti-poor, it will seek to extend them to, and marry them with, initiatives in ‘‘agriculture and employment’’. In short, growth with populism.

The party says it will conduct its second and final exhaustive pre-poll survey in the final week of March.