Gujarat legitimises Paswan’s divorce

The BJP’s tie-up with Mayawati would have lessened considerably his importance within the NDA in the months to come. The fact that Mayawati was not prepared to give the Lok Jan Shakti a ministerial berth was only a straw in the wind to indicate the shape of things to come. As it is Paswan had been smarting from his demotion a year ago, when he lost the Communications portfolio and was given Coal and Mines.

Now, Paswan stands to lose more than he will gain by continuing with the NDA. The large Muslim population in his constituency, Hajipur, must have had him worried after Gujarat erupted and after the BJP seemed to be going back to its aggressive Hindutva line.

He will now try and forge a dalit-Muslim combination in Bihar, which Mayawati targeted successfully in the last two elections.

In the short run, Paswan’s decision to quit because of the failure of the BJP to send Narendra Modi packing will naturally put pressure on all the other allies who have made similar demands, whether it is the TDP, the JD(U), Trinamool Congress or National Conference.

In terms of hard politics, Paswan’s exit would increase the importance of Sharad Yadav within the NDA though he too had been chafing at the way he was moved from Civil Aviation to Labour. Yadav may also not like to play second fiddle to Paswan and the JD(U) has issued a whip to its members to be present in the house on Tuesday.

Paswan’s exit comes as a boost to the Opposition and Mulayam Singh Yadav has already invited him to join the People’s Front. He has had cordial relations with the Congress and he and Sonia have attended each other’s iftaar parties.

However, a Laloo-Paswan-Congress alliance in Bihar would be formidable and, though Paswan and Laloo have been foes in recent years, this is likely to change for Laloo is aware of the challenge that a BJP-BSP-Samata combine would pose to the RJD leader in Bihar.