Fix a rain date with the stars

AAU8217;s monsoon almanac for 2007 has rainfall prediction from June to October for each of the 25 districts of the state. It also predicted that the state was likely to receive around 36 per cent higher rainfall than the normal levels.

AAU vice-chancellor M.C. Varshenya claimed the university was the only one to predict the late monsoon while others like the Indian Meteorology Department kept changing its prediction from an early monsoon to a timely one and finally, to delayed rains.

But while AAU predicted the monsoon right, the sudden downpour in July seemed to have washed away some of the sheen off its almanac. 8220;Floods and cyclones are extreme events. It needs separate techniques, which was beyond our calculation,8221; said V-C Varshenya. However, he said, 8220;AAU is working on this and our future forecasts will do such analysis as well.8221;

Varshenya said they also predicted heavy rains in the second week of September and the third week of August. AAU8217;s prediction, he said, had helped farmers prepare their schedule to match the late monsoon.

But the government seems to have made no such effort. When asked if it had prepared farmers for the late rains, State Agriculture Director R.A. Sherasia said, 8220;There are so many factors that we need to consider while planning a contingency plan; not just a forecast brought out by a university.8221;