Faith-based nonproliferation

We8217;ll believe it when Kim Jong Il hands over his plutonium

So8230; North Korea8217;s Kim Jong Il has finally decided to give up his nuclear ambitions in return for diplomatic recognition and foreign aid. The Bush Administration will no doubt be praised with scorn for finally being 8220;reasonable8221; and recognising 8220;reality,8221; but the exercise strikes us as something close to faith-based nonproliferation.

Perhaps the best thing we can say about the deal is that it is marginally better than the 8220;Agreed Framework,8221; the 1994 accord in which the Clinton Administration agreed to hand over two light-water reactors and 500,000 tons of fuel oil a year in exchange for North Korea8217;s promise to freeze its plutonium programme. Pyongyang pocketed the oil, only to demand more compensation within a few years while secretly enriching uranium in a separate nuclear programme that it only acknowledged in 2002.

This time there are no nuclear reactors on offer, and North Korea will get only 5 of the promised one million tons of fuel oil and humanitarian assistance up front. The remaining 95 is contingent upon North Korea providing a full accounting of all of its nuclear programs within 60 days, and ultimately agreeing to dismantle the works. That includes nuclear bombs, spent fuel and the clandestine uranium program 8212; which it now denies having but that the Bush Administration insists does exist.

The other difference from 1994 is that China is a party to this accord. Beijing has by far the most leverage of any country on Pyongyang, as its political patron and supplier of most of its energy needs. China was instrumental in getting Pyongyang back to the negotiating table after a three-year absence8230; The dictator8217;s habit is to strike an agreement and then try to renegotiate it along the way for better terms. He will have many chances to do so under yesterday8217;s accord, because the commitments 8230; are vague to say the least. His one important specific promise is to shut down his plutonium facility, at Yongbyon, within 60 days.

The accord makes no mention of the plutonium his regime has produced8230;Nor does it refer to his uranium enrichment program, much less specify that international inspectors will be able to roam the country8217;s vast network of underground installations for evidence of where that program might be. Bush Administration officials say that they believe that all of Kim8217;s nuclear activities are covered under the agreement, and that Kim will be expected to come clean in his 60-day declaration. But if he doesn8217;t? 8230;

Excerpted from The Wall Street Journal, February 14