Experts soft-tread on Pak fallout

NEW DELHI, May 28: The Pakistani nuclear tests conducted today in response to the Indian tests have evoked mixed reactions from New Delhi-ba...

NEW DELHI, May 28: The Pakistani nuclear tests conducted today in response to the Indian tests have evoked mixed reactions from New Delhi-based strategic affairs analysts. Opinions ranged from a hearty welcome to the development to fears that it could result in escalation of tensions, given the Indo-Pak track record in bilateral relations.

Said K Subrahmanyam, former director of Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses IDSA: 8220;The Pakistan bomb, mothered by China and fathered by the US, has now come out into the open. It is better for India to face an open Pakistan bomb capability instead of a covert nuclear capability which many of our own people refuse to acknowledge and accept.8221;

P R Chary, co-director, Institute of Peace Conflict and Studies, said it is normally presumed that 8220;two nuclearised adversarial countries would have a stable relationship due to nuclear deterrence which would inhibit both nuclear and conventional war.8221; But, he said, 8220;in the case of India-Pakistan relations it may not betrue because proxy war in Kashmir could always escalate into a conventional conflict that could get out of control. Stabilisation of nuclear relations requires dialogue to appreciate each other8217;s doctrine, gain confidence over each other8217;s command and control arrangement and to know what are the impermissible action that could lead to nuclear conflict.8221;

Bharat Karnad, research professor, Centre for Policy Studies, felt that a nuclear Pakistan 8220;is not incompatible with a thermo-nuclear India.8221; Indeed the Pakistani tests have clarified the situation on the subcontinent. 8220;This means there will be less chance of war by reasons of uncertainty. Neither nation will be in any doubt about the other8217;s capability. The Indian strategic community should welcome this development,8221; Karnad said.

Professor Satish Kumar, a disarmament studies specialist, is of the opinion that India8217;s security environment has undergone drastic deterioration because the acquisition of nuke capability by Pakistan in January 1987. 8220;Theproxy war in Kashmir,8221; he said, 8220;had started under the cover of nuclear weapon capability in 1988-89. India has no reason to fear Pak8217;s nuclear capability because its arsenal is more than a match for Pakistan. It is for the world to decide whether Pakistan or India which has violated international law.8221;