Exit polls make Congress feel good

Buoyed by exit polls after the completion of the entire election process predicting a hung parliament, with the possibility of the BJP-led N...

Buoyed by exit polls after the completion of the entire election process predicting a hung parliament, with the possibility of the BJP-led NDA alliance falling well short of the half-way mark, Opposition leaders in the capital quickly forgot election fatigue and began confabulations towards forming an alternative government at the Centre later in the week.

The possibility that the NDA tally might fall below the 250 threshold has energised both the Congress and Left camps who feel that the final result on May 13 is likely to prove much worse for the NDA than predicted in the exit polls.

While a minority within the Congress is of the view that the party should not make an attempt to form the government if the Congress-led alliance and the Left parties do not together get 272 seats, they have been over-ruled by the majority view which wants the Congress leadership 8216;8216;to make every effort to ensure that the NDA does not form the next government,8217;8217; well placed sources said.

As in 1996, the Left8212;particularly the CPIM8212;is set to play a key role in bringing together disparate forces to form a 8216;8216;secular government,8217;8217; sources added.

CPIM general secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet is already busy talking to a range of political leaders on the post-poll scenario. Former Prime Minister V P Singh met him today, Congress chief Sonia Gandhi is slated to meet him tomorrow morning and he has been in touch with Mulayam Singh Yadav on the telephone, sources said.

A significant shift in the CPIM8217;s position this time as compared to 1996 is that the party believes that the Congress should be part of the next government. In 1996, the United Front was willing to accept Congress support from the outside but against its inclusion in the government.

The reason for the shift is two-fold. First, unlike in 1996, the argument that the Congress had lost the mandate and therefore should not be part of government no longer holds.

Story continues below this ad

Second, the United Front experiment showed that the concept of 8220;outside support8221; was inherently unstable. 8220;If the Congress emerges as the single largest party outside the NDA, we cannot expect it not to lead the alternative government,8221; a Left leader said.

The question of Sonia Gandhi8217;s leadership is likely to be a prickly issue but Congressmen are adamant that any Congress-led coalition will have to be led by her. In a far more upbeat mood today than when the election exercise began several weeks ago,Congress leaders also feel that it is time to be 8220;aggressive8221; and make every possible effort to form the government if the numbers do not favour the NDA this time.

Of course, all these scenarios remain speculative till the actual results are in. None of the exit polls, for instance, give the Congress alliance even 200 seats. The Aajtak figure is 190, Zee-Talim 176, Star News 174-186, and Sahara 171-181.

But even if the Congress alliance is well short of majority, it is banking on the active support of the Left. If the Left parties get 40-50 seats, they can tilt the balance away from a weakened NDA, sources said.