El Nino effect on monsoon dips

In the past, the Indian monsoon and consequent crop production have been affected several times by this ocean current anomaly that plays havoc on global weather pattern. A weak monsoon is generally coincided with a warm El Nino event.

But a recent study carried out K Krishna Kumar from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology IITM at Pune show that the link between Enso El Nino-southern oscillation and monsoon is gradually weakening in the last few decades.

During the strong 1997 El Nino, Indonesia had severe drought while the monsoon rainfall over India was normal.

The study, published in a recent issue of prestigious US journal Science, was conducted by Kumar together with Balaji Rajagopalan and Mark Canefrom International Research Institute IRI for climate prediction in New York.8220;This recent breakdown in Enso-monsoon connection is without precedent in the historical records,8221; Kumar, after analysing the records of past 142 years, wrote in the journal.

Describing the global warming trend as the causative agent the scientists said 8220;there is the intriguing possibility that global warming has broken the link between Enso and the monsoon by preventing monsoon failure.quot; Generally an interplay between Himalayan snow cover and Enso effect controls the Indian monsoon.