
TOKYO, Dec 26: The dollar is likely to remain on a uptrend against the yen in the first half of 1998 due to concerns about a possible recession and financial system uncertainties in Japan, foreign exchange dealers in Tokyo say.
But the dollar/yen rate may see some correction by the latter half of next year, as by then the Japanese economy is likely to show improvement while the US economy is expected to slow down, they say.
The dollar could test 140 yen in January or February amid instability in Japan8217;s financial markets and a possible political crisis for the government of prime minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, said Takeshi Hanai, executive manager of the Industrial Bank of Japan IBJ.
quot;The focus next year is whether Japan can escape from financial system uncertainties. That is to say, whether Japan can adjust its fiscal and economic policies,quot; Hanai said. quot;If the government does not decide to temporarily shelve its fiscal reform efforts, the Japanese economy could be bogged down,quot; he added. Dealers said an anticipated slowdown in Japan8217;s real economic growth was the main reason for their bearish outlook for the yen in the first half of 1998.