Congress has quot;independentquot; power

Nevertheless, Pawar8217;s past week activities in Mumbai, as he chose to absent himself from the Parliament proceedings to make himself immensely accessible to the once-hated Independents, has shaken the Sena-BJP alliance. For even without government clout, in the Centre as well as the State, the power balance in Maharashtra has subtly shifted in favour of the Congress, though there are several ironies involved in this drifting ofIndependents towards their parent party all of them won the last election as Congress rebels. First, the Congress can hope to capitalise on little more than the RS polls by virtue of this drift: its leaders are not about to topple the Sena-BJP government in a hurry. Their greatest handicap is lack of a suitable candidate for the post of chief minister and Pawar is wary of setting one hopeful against the other at this juncture when recapturing the State in the next elections, due in January, 2000, is the all important goal before him.The Congress is also not clear yet what is better for itself: toppling the government now and go into the election with the advantage of government machinery or let the Sena-BJP remain in power in order to gain the fullest advantage of its failures just like it did during the last Lok Sabha polls. Secondly, Pawar has to tread on eggshells with regard to the one-time rebels. They are, after all, responsible for diminishing the Congress in the State. There is tremendous pressureon him and other Congress leaders from loyalists, old and new, who stood by the party through thick and mostly thin, not to reward the rebels. This is said to be the main reason behind Pawar8217;s reluctance to accord at least 25 Independents associate membership of the party.

Pawar would rather test their loyalty during the RS and Council by-elections on June 18 in which Independent support could add one additional candidate to the Congress or deny the Sena-BJP one. While some candidates are employing means, fair or foul, to woo the Independents, the Congress is only holding out the promise of accommodation in the future, without quite promising them tickets in the next election.

However, there are subtle messages. For example, the award of a Council ticket to MPCC president Ranjit Deshmukh is an indication to local Vidarbha Congress overlord Babasaheb Kedar that his son, Sunil, might be free to contest on a party ticket from Saoner in Nagpur district. Sunil, as a Congress rebel, had defeated Deshmukh in1995 and was later inducted as a minister in the Sena-BJP government. Today he is one of the more open supporters of the Congress.

Those still in the closet are likely to make their identities known to all within the next week. It is an event that the Congress awaits with anticipation and the Sena-BJP with trepidation.