Confused Cong resists Pawar bait

There were 18 seats in Gujarat where a combination of the Congress and the NCP votes would have defeated the BJP. A mechanical transfer of votes does not always take place, but it is possible that the Congress might have salvaged the situation in about a dozen seats had it tied up with the NCP.

That the NCP should insist on a pre-poll alliance in Maharashtra 21 months before the elections are due is unusual. And thereby hangs a tale. By giving an indication that an alliance is around the corner, the NCP chief is assuring his MLAs that they should not look for greener pastures.

Whatever be Pawar’s rhetoric, the NCP is the most vulnerable group in Maharashtra, and its president has nicked in time attempts to break his party in the past. The restiveness in the NCP has been growing. The removal of Padamsinh Patil, his one time lieutenant, as Energy Minister by Pawar for the power mess in the state has not helped, even though the NCP chief made light of it by saying that Patil had resigned on his own.

An alliance would improve the prospects of Pawar as Maharashtra chief minister if it wins, and help him bounce back.

Pawar has no option but to take the Chandrababu Naidu route: seize the leadership of the state, have a sizeable number of MPs elected to Lok Sabha and become a player at the Centre. There is little doubt that after his party’s victory in the zilla parishad elections, Pawar would insist on a 50:50 division of tickets and manoeuvre the post poll situation to his advantage. The Congress’ present leadership in the state is no match for him.

In the long run, Pawar would want to position himself in such a way that he gets the leadership of the Congress, if Sonia Gandhi has to make way for someone else to head a Congress-led alliance. Realising the restiveness in regional parties, inside the NDA and outside it, after Gujarat, Pawar has called for secular parties to come together.

Several senior NCP leaders have given the Congress a virtual ultimatum that the party either decide on for pre-poll alliance now or else the regional party might pull out of the Maharashtra government. While this could be just bluff, Sonia cannot afford to take chances, not when the Congress is unsure how to retain its governments.

For Sonia, the decision is not easy. For if Pawar increases his Lok Sabha tally to 15-20 seats with a Congress alliance, someone like Mulayam Singh Yadav notches an equal number, and Jayalalithaa too joins them, they might promise support to a Congress-led government if the party opted for someone other than Sonia.

Some Congressmen favour a pact with the NCP to retrieve the position in Maharashtra. Vayalar Ravi, AICC gen secretary in charge of the state, had indicated as much. Others feel the Congress should bargain for NCP’s acceptance of Sonia’s leadership. Pawar has toned down his Sonia rhetoric. He said the issue of her foreign origin would ‘‘be raised at an appropriate forum’’ but it would be put aside in the elections.

Sonia is obviously buying time. The Congress last Sunday said it’s open to alliances with like-minded parties. Sonia is also contemplating a change of guard in Maharashtra.