Coming of age?

The BJP-led coalition at the Centre completes its first hundred days in office today. It would be easy to give it a poor report card, especially as governments8217; first days are usually their most vigorous and tend to set the tone. Except that its radical decision on going openly nuclear, which has consumed the whole of its 8212; and the nation8217;s 8212; energy for the last six weeks necessarily calls for a reserving of judgment. The government8217;s first fifty days were decidedly much the worse of its short tenure so far. In that time, not a single important policy decision was taken 8212; the one on the tests was not then public. The worst-case scenario seemed already to be unfolding in the coalition. The question was much more acute about the likelihood of its survival for any respectable length of time. The public perception of this limping and blundering government changed on May 11. An elated country, or large sections of it anyway, marvelled at its determined commitment to national security. It revelled in somethingto feel proud about after a seemingly long time. The esteem went up a notch two days later when India tested two more devices in the face of international outrage.

Since then, the situation has reverted closer to old form, albeit with significant improvement. The government still blunders. Witness the petrol and urea price-hike fiascos. The biggest blunder of them all was the Budget itself which deservedly did much to restore proportion to this government8217;s image. Economic hardship is no novelty for Indians, and they seem willing to take their share of it as a price for national security and pride. But the Budget was rightly seen as doing nothing to preempt avoidable pain.

Jayalalitha is back on the war path. And yet things have changed somehow, probably because time does its own work. So far, the BJP has resisted pressure to bring down state governments to oblige its allies. As the coalition gets used to Jayalalitha8217;s style her tantrums no longer seem quite as menacing. The point seems to have gone homethat while the BJP needs her for survival, she needs it too. She would be foolhardy to pull the rug from under its feet, both in terms of her own interests and of pushing over a government which recently won much respect.

The jury is very much out on this government. It may seem superfluous to stress that after a mere hundred days but governments8217; life expectancy has become notoriously short recently. Certainly for the next one hundred days but probably for much longer, the test of its competence will have to refer to the nuclear tests. After adding a sanctions dimension to an already depressed economy, the BJP has given very little evidence of being able to cope, through selective clearance of foreign investment proposals: the range of economic issues resulting indirectly from sanctions is far greater. And then there is the diplomatic challenge, where the government has acquitted itself rather well so far. To expect that at the end of the next one hundred days it will have time and energy for all the realgovernance that impatiently awaits it may prove too fond a hope. For now, it would have earned its laurels if India can emerge relatively unscathed economically and stronger diplomatically from the blasts of May 11 and 13.